Breaking Down: Andy Dalton

In this installment of “Breaking Down” I’ll be touching up on the Bengals 2nd round draft pick and former Horned Frog, Quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton waited till after his senior season for the NFL, after spending 5 years at Texas Christian. After his stellar career at TCU he has gone down in the history books as the 2nd most winning QB in NCAA D1 football history. In the draft process he was looked at being a top QB in the 2011 class. Most “Draft Gurus” felt he was a top 5 QB, and in many cases experts felt that his talent was deserving of a 1st round draft pick.

Official Combine Stats:

Height: 6’2″
Weight: 215
40 Yrd Dash: 4.82
20 Yrd Dash: 2.75
10 Yrd Dash: 1.65
Vertical Jump:  29.5″
Broad Jump: 8’10”
20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.27
3-Cone Drill: 6.93

Many draft “gurus” were high on Dalton, some TV personalities were so “Dalton Crazy” they made hefty comparisons like ESPN’s Trent Dilfer:

"“I can’t tell you how much Aaron Rodgers I see in Andy Dalton. They have tremendously quick releases, they can throw from multiple foot platforms, meaning they can be off balance, very aggressive by nature, (they can) extend the play, and they understand the value of a completion. I think that’s one of the biggest things in evaluating a quarterback that goes unnoticed is which guys understand the value of completing the football. It doesn’t have to be glamorous all the time but they’re going to get a completion, they’re going to move the chains and they’re going to get completions in the biggest moments of games. That’s what I see with Andy Dalton. If there’s one guy in this draft — if I was coaching — that I would want to coach, it’s Andy Dalton.”"

Before giving my analysis on the Bengals new QB, I’d like to defer to R.C. Fischer over at Fantasy Football Metrics. R.C. has a formula to calculate if a QB will be a success or failure in the NFL (surprisingly it’s very accurate). Here’s what he had for Dalton:

"Looking at all of our historical data on college QBs so far with their stats weighted for strength of schedule, Dalton is above average rated among all QBs we have looked at so far in completion percentage, yards per completion, and Pass Attempts per TD ratio. Dalton has no red-flags in our system with Passing metrics. Dalton’s numbers are sitting right there with the future elite QB’s that we have studied; based on his metrics as a passer. However, the physical “measureables” hurt Dalton at 6’2 height and 31.5 inch arm length — he’s right on the physical cusp of where QBs statistically/historically struggle translating to the NFL.Andy Dalton Overall Score = 0.889"

A quick explanation of the what that number means. There’s 2 categories: .850+ “Seems to be the mark that puts you on the map of being a potential very good NFL starter, with the chance of being ‘elite”. All of the elite QBs have hit this level (Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, etc).” And .849 and under “The more likely to “bust” group, and the probability of the “bust” increases as the score goes lower, for the most part). There are good QBs in this range, but no elites.”

Now to look at  Dalton’s talents and physical tools. His accuracy is arguably the best in the class, and is the best passer in the class while on the run. When making throws he show’s great anticipation knowing when his WR’s are going to be open. His arm is typically sold short by saying he doesn’t have a strong arm, well they said the same about Joe Montana and Peyton Manning. With that being said I’m not comparing them to Dalton but rather saying they made every NFL throw they needed to make even with less then elite arm strength. Along with his elite accuracy Dalton boasts a superior pocket presence, as well as the ability to pick up chunks of yards with his legs if the play breaks down. Dalton has been noted as a “football nerd” and a kid with overall great intangibles such as being a “fiery leader” and having a “refuse to lose mentality”. In his career at TCU, Dalton only lost 7 games while being a 4 year starter; with a 34-3 record in the past 3 seasons.  Another noteworthy stat is that he is a 3-time bowl game MVP, including a Rose Bowl MVP during a victory over Wisconsin this past season.

For those wondering Andy will be wearing his college jersey number, 14.  This may be a mild shock to some of the fan base as this is the number worn by arguably the franchises best QB Kenny Anderson. But in the teams defense, the number is fair game because the number was not retired. (THOUGH IT ALREADY SHOULD HAVE BEEN)  It’s safe to say there is a lot of pressure already on this young signal caller. He’s taking over for a disgruntled franchise QB, he’s wearing the jersey number of a franchise legend, and the player who announced his 2nd round pick was the greatest player to wear stripes Anthony Munoz. In response to the pressure he’ll face as a Bengal,  let me leave you with a quote from Andy’s biggest fan (Trent Dilfer) “The bright lights were on them every week — people wanting them to lose. And he didn’t flinch — he never flinched his entire career”.