Behind the Matchup: Chargers vs. Bengals

 

14

The number of interceptions QB Philip Rivers has thrown this year. He is poised to make around 2-3 bad decisions per game. It’s up to the Bengals defense to mkae him pay for his mistakes.

 

95

The Chargers haven’t had a 100-yard rusher this season. The 95 yards rushing by RB Ryan Matthews in Week 8 vs. Browns was the teams’ season-high by one player. It’s no surprise they rank 25th in the NFL in rushing offense.

 

1

The Bengals are coming off back-to-back 100 yard rushing performances for the first time this season, but they’ll go against a Chargers defense that ranks 5th in the NFL and has allowed just one 100-yard rusher this year.

 

16

The Chargers defense has forced 14 fumbles this year, good for 4th-best in the NFL.

 

3

The Chargers have just three offensive touchdowns in their last 12 quarters of play. The Bengals have allowed just two TDs in their last 12 quarters of play.

 

6

The Chargers have lost 6 of their past 7 games and have gone from leading the AFC West by 2 games to being 2 games out of the wild card playoff race.

 

AccuScore, a website dedicated to in-depth NFL simulations, had this breakdown of the Bengals @ chargers matchup:

Expect a close game with the Cincinnati Bengals winning 49% of simulations, and the San Diego Chargers 50% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Cincinnati Bengals commit fewer turnovers in 54% of simulations and they go on to win 71% when they take care of the ball. The San Diego Chargers wins 77% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging 54 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (23% chance) then he helps his team win 68%. Philip Rivers is averaging 273 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (29% chance) then he helps his team win 60%.