Behind the Matchup: Chargers vs. Bengals

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Nov 25, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) reacts after a sack during the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE



The number of interceptions QB Philip Rivers has thrown this year. He is poised to make around 2-3 bad decisions per game. It’s up to the Bengals defense to mkae him pay for his mistakes.



The Chargers haven’t had a 100-yard rusher this season. The 95 yards rushing by RB Ryan Matthews in Week 8 vs. Browns was the teams’ season-high by one player. It’s no surprise they rank 25th in the NFL in rushing offense.



The Bengals are coming off back-to-back 100 yard rushing performances for the first time this season, but they’ll go against a Chargers defense that ranks 5th in the NFL and has allowed just one 100-yard rusher this year.



The Chargers defense has forced 14 fumbles this year, good for 4th-best in the NFL.



The Chargers have just three offensive touchdowns in their last 12 quarters of play. The Bengals have allowed just two TDs in their last 12 quarters of play.



The Chargers have lost 6 of their past 7 games and have gone from leading the AFC West by 2 games to being 2 games out of the wild card playoff race.


AccuScore, a website dedicated to in-depth NFL simulations, had this breakdown of the Bengals @ chargers matchup:

Expect a close game with the Cincinnati Bengals winning 49% of simulations, and the San Diego Chargers 50% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Cincinnati Bengals commit fewer turnovers in 54% of simulations and they go on to win 71% when they take care of the ball. The San Diego Chargers wins 77% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging 54 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (23% chance) then he helps his team win 68%. Philip Rivers is averaging 273 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (29% chance) then he helps his team win 60%.


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