The Bengals were involved in two of the biggest win-probability swings during the 2017 NFL season.
On Wednesday, ESPN writer Brian Burke listed the top 10 craziest win-probability swings from the 2017 NFL season. The Bengals, along with the Seahawks and Texans, found themselves involved in two of those swings.
Geronimo Allison’s 72-yard overtime catch vs. Cincinnati
The 0-2 Bengals were desperate for a win (and a touchdown) going into a late-September tilt at Lambeau Field. In Bill Lazor’s debut at offensive coordinator, Andy Dalton’s pair of first-half touchdown tosses and William Jackson III’s 75-yard pick-six gave the Bengals a 21-7 halftime lead.
However, Aaron Rodgers mounted a comeback, throwing two second-half touchdowns to Jordy Nelson to tie the game 24-24 at the end of regulation.
After a three-and-out by the Bengals to start OT, Rodgers found Geronimo Allison for 72 yards on a third-and-10 to set up a Mason Crosby game-winning field goal.
Green Bay’s longest offensive play of the season shifted its win probability by 56 percent. Good enough for the 10th highest swing in the NFL this season.
The significance? The Bengals dropped to 0-3, which is doomsday for an NFL team’s playoff hopes. Since 1980, there have been 173 teams that have started 0-3. Just five of those clubs recovered to make the postseason. All five 0-3 teams in 2017 – Cincinnati, Los Angeles (Chargers), Cleveland, New York (Giants) and San Francisco – missed the playoffs.
Tyler Boyd’s 49-yard touchdown catch vs. Baltimore
Perhaps the high point of the Bengals’ 50th season had the highest win-probability shift in all of 2017.
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On fourth-and-12 from the Baltimore 49-yard line, Andy Dalton connected with Tyler Boyd for a go-ahead touchdown that stunned the 70,000-plus fans at M&T Bank Stadium and sent a wave of jubilation through western New York.
Boyd’s game-winning TD had a win-probability swing of 87.7 percent, beating out Chargers’ kicker Younghoe Koo’s missed field goal against Miami in week 2 by 8.2 percent.
Da Bills
Cincinnati’s improbable 31-27 victory not only knocked division-rival Baltimore out of the playoffs, but propelled the Bills to the final Wild Card spot, ending Buffalo’s 17-year postseason drought.
It then led to over 10,000 donors giving nearly $250,000 to the Andy & Jordan Dalton Foundation.
Update: 10,000 donors, just shy of 250,000. Wow! Thank you! pic.twitter.com/7wENSGTpRv
— Andy Dalton (@andydalton14) January 3, 2018
Best of the rest
Just missing the cut was A.J. Green’s 70-yard fourth-quarter touchdown catch against Tennessee. The Bengals were trailing the entire game against the Titans, but Green’s TD gave Cincinnati a three-point edge with 5:03 remaining.
Green’s second-longest TD catch of the year resulted in a 54.50 percent shift in Cincinnati’s favor. The Bengals came up short at Nissan Stadium, though. Marcus Mariota led a 73-yard game-winning drive in the game’s final moments. DeMarco Murray scored with 36 seconds left and Tennessee prevailed, 24-20.
That score did help Green record his sixth career 1,000-yard season.