Cincinnati Bengals: 12% playoff chance not as dramatic as it sounds

I’m sure you’ve heard this by now, but with an 0-2 record, the Cincinnati Bengals only have a 12% chance to make the playoffs. Now let me tell you why Bengals fans shouldn’t worry about the math.

What if I told you that the New England Patriots, before they ever kicked off their first game with a record of 0-0, only had a 39% chance of making the playoffs? That’s the percentage chance that every team has of making the playoffs before the season starts.  So it just makes sense that your odds go down as you lose, and prove that you’re not better than other teams. Is this the case with the Cincinnati Bengals?

Based on history, 12% of all teams that started 0-2 actually did make it to the playoffs.  So while it’s dramatic to share the 12% number, it’s far from a death sentence for your football team. Even if the Bengals lose in Buffalo and the headlines begin to proclaim that they now only have a 2% chance of making the playoffs, just getting that first win brings it right back up to 15%.  Just proving that your team is good enough to be at least one team is the first hurdle of the season.

If you find 12% to be a discouraging number, don’t do the math to figure out the chances of anyone team beating the other 31 teams to win a Super Bowl. Divide 1 by 32 & you’ll realize you start the season with only a 3.1% chance of winning a championship. That’s assuming that all the teams are perfectly even, which we know they’re not.  The roster talent level, coaching, market size attracting better free agents, and various other factors skew those odds even more towards teams like New England and away from the Bengals.

But don’t we watch sports because we long to see the odds overcome?  Isn’t that why every great sports movie centers around underdog? Sure, there are those who desire to cheer for excellence in sports. Cheer for a dynasty, those people cheered for the undefeated Patriots when they face the Giants in an attempt to obtain the perfect season. But some people, like me, cheered for the underdog Giants.

The 12% stat is just basic math. It’s not predictive because it has nothing to do with the team you’ll watch on Sunday. You might have heard the phrase, “You are who your record says you are.”. Which is true…at the end of the season. Right now it might be more fitting to say, “You are only as good as the opponent you’ve beaten…thus far.”

Yes, the 49ers revealed that we still have issues covering running backs. But that’s an issue that can largely be cleaned up by not having nearly record numbers of missed tackles. Check out this tweet by Cincinnati Enquirer Bengals Beat Writer Tyler Dragon.

We know that the Cincinnati Bengals were capable of standing toe-to-toe with a good Seahawks team, and It is important to point out that the Seahawks are in fact, a good team.  They were able to dispatch our division rivals from Pittsburgh with relative ease.

The only wins in the entire AFC North are against the tanking Miami Dolphins, last year‘s worst team the Arizona Cardinals, and a severely injured New York Jets.  I still think that playing tough but losing in Seattle by one point due to a rainy missed field goal,  is more indicative of a team’s true ability, over how much other teams can run up the score on lesser opponents.

So don’t let someone discourage you from cheering for these Bengals players, the coaches, and the team you love.  The first handful of games are not more important than the games at the end of the season. And they are especially less important than the games against our division opponents who are showing weaknesses and deficiencies that may prove to be greater than our own.  There’s a very real possibility that the defense doesn’t miss 160 yards worth of tackles in Buffalo, and the Bengals roll into Pittsburgh in week four as the favorites with a returning A.J. Green and healthy Cordy Glenn.

A win in Buffalo and the Cincinnati Bengals are up to 25%  to make the playoffs.  Beat the injured Steelers 36%. And the next time we all gather at Paul Brown Stadium we could be facing a struggling Arizona Cardinals and staring a 50% playoff chance in the face. Who Dey!