Could Joe Burrow lead Cincinnati Bengals to playoffs in year 1?

Joe Burrow will almost assuredly be dawning stripes next season. Here, we look at the chances of him leading the Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs as a rookie. 

After fielding the worst team in the NFL and securing an abysmal 2-14 record, fans and pundits alike are wisely viewing the Cincinnati Bengals as a squad that is a few years away from truly competing. Securing the top overall pick, which will likely be spent on Joe Burrow, is expected to lay a solid foundation for the rebuild period the team is about to enter.

However, what if the team can do the seemingly impossible and mirror the turnaround they had in 2011? After winning just 4 games in 2010, the front office put together an impressive draft class that led to a wild card playoff spot.

That feat was accomplished with a rookie Andy Dalton at the helm, who clearly didn’t have the same level of expectations placed on his shoulders as Joe Burrow will upon his arrival to the league.

The last time an extremely young quarterback selected with the number one overall pick led their team to the playoffs was in 2017, when Jared Goff helped secure the Rams a spot in the postseason. Of course, there are some things to note in this scenario. The front office hired Sean McVay, who ended up taking the league by storm that season. In addition, the team traded up for the first overall pick, so they weren’t technically the worst team in the NFL the year prior. Perhaps most importantly, Goff was able to get some experience in his rookie season before taking a leap as a sophomore.

In order to find a quarterback truly dragging a franchise from the cellar to the playoffs as a rookie, you have to go back to 2012, with Andrew Luck and the Colts. Luck helped net the team 9 more wins in comparison to the year prior, a remarkable turnaround.

Obviously, it’s unfair to put those kinds of expectations on Burrow. The now-retired Luck was a once in a generation prospect. While some are saying Burrow is the best signal-caller to come out of the college ranks since Luck, it’s too soon to put him on that level.

Beyond the Colt’s scenario, looking at the past decade of team records before and after selecting a quarterback first overall reveals an interesting trend. Cam Newton helped the Panthers secure 4 additional wins. Jameis Winston followed suit and led the Buccaneers to 4 more victories. Baker Mayfield helped oversee the largest jump, locking up 7 more wins for the Browns. Finally, Kyler Murray gave the Cardinals more life with 2 additional victories when all was said and done.

So, on average, picking up the best quarterback prospect in a normal draft class (one that doesn’t contain Luck or involve trading up) accounts for 4.2 additional wins the following season. However, each of those quarterbacks fell short of reaching the postseason in year one.

That leaves the question, where does Joe Burrow lie on the spectrum of first overall quarterbacks? Is he more Kyler Murray or is the 23-year-old in an even higher echelon of quarterbacks?

Many would argue that Burrow is closer to the top end of prospect grades when compared to other recent first overall quarterbacks. The season he just put on display would certainly back that argument up.

If the assessment of Burrow from most experts is correct, it is far from impossible for Burrow to lead the Cincinnati Bengals back to the post-season. However, recent history suggests it is unlikely.

Still, in 15 of the past 17 NFL seasons, a team that finished last in their division ended up winning it the very next season. Perhaps Joe Burrow can have a rookie campaign unlike the league has seen in 8 years. Maybe the front office puts together an impeccable draft class. With a little good fortune, the injuries that pilled up this past season will be distant memories come next fall, giving the Bengals a shot.

For realistic fans, expect a 6-win season. For those who hold the memory of the 2011 squad dear to their hearts, there is a glimmer of hope the city of Cincinnati will be watching their hometown Bengals come next January, even if it’s unlikely.