PFF has quite the bold prediction for Joe Burrow in his rookie year
Joe Burrow is fighting against historical trends
2020 was the third year in a row where a quarterback was taken with the number one overall pick. Baker Mayfield was selected by the Browns in 2018 and Kyler Murray was chosen by the Cardinals in 2019.
Burrow will need to perform far better than either one of these quarterbacks to end up in the top ten. One of the best ways to judge the performance of a quarterback is through their QBR. QBR is a metric that determines the overall performance and impact a quarterback has for his team.
Baker Mayfield had a better rookie year than he did during his most recent campaign. During his rookie year when he gave the Cleveland Browns hope that he was their franchise quarterback, Mayfield was ranked 23rd in total QBR. Mayfield had a solid supporting cast that year with Jarvis Landry and David Njoku but that was nowhere near the level of talent that Burrow will be throwing to in Cincinnati.
The following year Kyler Murray was on a struggling Arizona Cardinals team but performed well enough to win offensive rookie of the year. In 2019 Murray threw for over 3,700 yards and 20 touchdowns while also rushing for over 500 yards.
Murray was the best rookie in the league on the offensive side of the ball but only finished 15th in total QBR. Murray had the future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald, but beyond that, the rest of the weapons on the Cardinals were less than ideal.
One of the best reasons to believe that Joe Burrow can become the best number one selection in recent years is because of the players slated to be around him.