As the Cincinnati Bengals enter the Joe Burrow era, here are five bold predictions for the promising rookie signal-caller.
When the Bengals drafted Joe Burrow, it was clear that they intended for him to be the franchise quarterback for a long time. Without ever taking a snap, they handed him the keys to the organization and made him the clear day one starter.
Expectations for rookies vary widely and the performance for each person is very different. With Burrow’s historic senior season at LSU and immediate status as a starter, the rookie has more pressure placed upon his shoulders than anyone else from the 2020 draft.
Adding even more pressure to the situation is the fact that Cincinnati’s success this year will largely rely on the play of Joe Burrow. Thankfully, everything that coaches and teammates have been saying out of camp has indicated that he is ready to jump in and be successful. However, without preseason games, the first chance fans will be able to make that determination for themselves won’t come until the home opener on Sunday.
The reigning Heisman has the opportunity to set himself up for a huge career by piecing together a strong opening season. Here are some predictions for Burrow, both in terms of statistics and team performance.
Joe Burrow will win Offensive Rookie of the Year
Last year, Kyler Murray won offensive rookie of the year after an impressive campaign in Arizona. The former top draft pick was the obvious choice going into the season and did not disappoint.
Joe Burrow enters the 2020 season as the favorite to win offensive rookie of the year and he will not disappoint either. The biggest competition for Burrow will be from Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa or former collegiate teammate Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Tagovailoa is coming off a devastating injury and hasn’t even earned his team’s starting job out of the gate, giving the Bengals’ man under center a head start. Edwards-Helaire, on the other hand, is in a prime position to succeed with the reigning Super Bowl champions, but he’ll have to fight for carries and targets from the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Outside of the favorable competition he’s going up against, the biggest reason Burrow will walk away with offensive rookie of the year is that he has a much better surrounding cast than any other rookie quarterback has had over the last few years.
With star wide receivers A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd running routes, Burrow will have top tier options that can make plays after the catch. He also has a great running back in Joe Mixon who can help take some of the pressure off him in big situations. A solid second tier of wide receivers in John Ross and Tee Higgins top things off. Burrow will be able to utilize these playmakers to have an excellent season.
Joe Burrow will throw for over 30 touchdowns
Speaking of an outstanding wide receiver class, the amount of star power Cincinnati’s offense possesses will give Burrow plenty of options to throw to. The recently elected captain will end 2020 with more than 30 touchdowns thrown on the season.
A healthy A.J. Green returning to the lineup could account for roughly 7-10 touchdowns since he has averaged right around 8 touchdowns per season over the course of his career, and maxed out with 11 during his best performances.
Throw in another 6-8 from Tyler Boyd now that he has a quarterback who will routinely challenge the defense down the middle of the field and Burrow is already at the halfway point to 30.
A full season of John Ross could see him reel in 4-6 touchdowns and 3-5 from rookie Tee Higgins brings Burrow’s total up to the 20-29 range. Assuming other players get involved in the passing game like Joe Mixon, Auden Tate, and C.J. Uzomah, and Burrow should be able to exceed the 30 touchdown number.
As a reference, Baker Mayfield was the closest to reach that mark as a rookie when he threw for 27, but Burrow will be working with a much better surrounding cast.
Burrow will end as a top ten quarterback
It is very difficult for rookie quarterbacks to end their first season and be looked at as one of the best players in the league, but that is exactly what Burrow is going to do as he begins his tenure in Cincinnati.
In 2019, the 10th rated quarterback according to Total QBR was Derek Carr, who had a 63.7 score. Carr’s successful rating can be contributed to his 4,054 passing yards, 21 touchdowns to only 8 interceptions, and completing 70.4% of his passes. Burrow would need to have similar numbers if he wants to end up inside the top ten.
Already discussed is how Burrow could end up with over 30 passing touchdowns, which will greatly exceed Carr’s total from a year ago. As far as how many yards to expect, a baseline of what both Murray and Mayfield did during their rookie years was right around 3,700 yards. While this would be short of Carr’s production, it is close enough to still make Burrow very competitive. There is also a good chance that with so many weapons on offense, Burrow exceeds this amount for Cincinnati.
The biggest question mark that he will have to answer is limiting his interceptions and completing a high percentage of his throws. These areas tend to be the hardest for rookies as they adjust to the speed of the NFL and have to learn to make better decisions, quicker than they did in college.
Burrow showed an incredible talent his senior year at minimizing mistakes and putting the ball in a place where only his receivers could make a play. That should continue and allow Burrow to end as one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Burrow will blow away former rookie quarterbacks
Cincinnati made Burrow the third straight quarterback selected at number one so he will always be compared to Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray when looking at rookie years. Both Murray and Mayfield delivered great performances in year one that had their teams believing they were franchise guys. In 2020, Burrow will blow them both away.
Burrow has the talent, arm strength, decision making, and tools around him to outperform both Mayfield and Murray in every statistical category. Burrow will throw for more than 3,700 yards throughout a healthy season by relying heavily on Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green. 30 or more touchdowns will come through the deep stable of receiving options. Not to mention, he threw fewer interceptions during his collegiate career than both Murray and Mayfield, speaking to his ability to taking care of the football.
Burrow is used to facing top-level competition in the SEC and that should help him translate over to the NFL better than either Murray or Mayfield. During his career playing Alabama, Georgia, and Florida, Burrow went up against the top defenses in the NCAA routinely.
Now, there is a big difference between the NFL and the SEC, but he should be able to adapt quickly and make smart decisions. He will end 2020 as the golden child for what a top overall pick should look like during their rookie season.
Cincinnati Bengals will have a non-losing record behind Burrow’s arm
Something neither Mayfield nor Murray was able to accomplish during their rookie season was to lead a winning team. Both made tremendous improvements and won more games than previous years, but both ended with a record below .500. In 2020, Burrow will lead the Bengals to at least an 8-8 record.
For the Bengals to end the year without a losing record would be a huge performance for the young quarterback. While going from last place to competing in a division is difficult, it is not impossible and Cincinnati is set up for success.
A solid defensive line and improved secondary will be instrumental in limiting opposing team’s possessions and chances. Plus, the offense has an opportunity to be one of the best units in the league and Burrow will be a huge part of that.
A season ago, 8 of the team’s losses came by one possession. Meaning if the defense could have come up with one more stop, or the offense put together one more drive, the Bengals would have been in a position to win many of those games. The difference between Andy Dalton and Joe Burrow is the difference between losing by three or winning by four. Burrow takes a talented team and gives them the edge they need to get over the hump and go at least 8-8 in 2020.