Following the 2021 NFL Draft, many Cincinnati Bengals fans had to feel excited about the incoming rookie class the front office had acquired. Though a sizable contingent of fans may have preferred a certain large Oregon Duck, it is undeniable the team walked away with substantial improvements to the offensive and defensive lines as well as one of the most dynamic receivers to declare in the last decade.
The 2020 NFL Draft proved to be a mixed bag for the Bengals, as top picks Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins enlivened the offense (when they played). However, the young linebacker trio of Logan Wilson, Akeem Davis-Gaither, and Markus Bailey failed to make a sizable impact on the second level, while defensive end Khalid Kareem and offensive lineman Hakeem Adeniji were largely invisible last year.
Especially from the later rounds, the Bengals should expect to get uneven contributions from their draftees this year. Even if the bar is high for Ja’Marr Chase and Jackson Carman, other Bengals may take time to acclimate.
However, let’s dive into some of the outlier possibilities from this year’s class, as the Bengals may have stumbled onto several late-round gems.
Cincinnati Bengals Rookie Class Bold Predictions
Ja’Marr Chase will set the Bengals’ rookie receiving mark…and won’t be the Bengals’ primary wide receiver.
The centerpiece of the class, Ja’Marr Chase — the No. 5 overall pick — should make an instant impact on this Bengals’ offense; Chase not only reunites with LSU teammate Joe Burrow (who helped Chase win the Biletnikoff Award), but he also provides a desperately needed field-stretching element for the Bengals’ offense. Chase’s combination of speed—a 4.37 40-yard dash at LSU’s pro day—and physicality at the catch point makes him a lethal deep threat.
Chase’s unique blend of physical traits, football IQ, and chemistry with Burrow will allow him to seamlessly integrate into the Bengals’ offense, likely as the de facto WR1 in most formations. The last time Chase lined up as Burrow’s WR1, he reeled in 84 catches for 1,730 yards and 20 touchdowns. Even the most scorching of hot takes should not project Chase for that level of production his rookie year, but he will step into a role where targets about and his skills can flourish.
The man Chase replaces—Bengals legend A.J. Green—currently holds the Bengals’ record for most receiving yards in a rookie season with 1,057. As Chase attempts to fill Green’s rather large shoes, he will have the benefit of taking over Green’s target share, which totaled 104 targets last season. 104 targets would be a conservative estimate for Chase, as he should not only play much better than Green (turning in an NFL-worst 45.2% catch rate on those 104 targets), but he will also play an additional game this season.
With Burrow likely to throw over 600 times, Chase can safely project for at least a 20% target share, which would be low for a WR1 like him. At 120 targets minimum, even a league-average catch rate of 67% would require Chase to record only about 13 yards/catch to break the record. That number is eminently obtainable for a big-play threat like Chase, and that target volume is incredibly conservative. Should Chase stay healthy for an entire season, especially with the extra game, recording 1,058 receiving yards or more should happen naturally.
However, there is a second component to this prediction, in that Chase’s stats will not lead all Bengals’ receivers. Last year’s second-round pick Tee Higgins was on pace to break Green’s record as well, until both he and Burrow got injured. Coming back for year two, the expectations for Higgins are sky high, especially alongside immense talents in Chase and Tyler Boyd.
As a WR2, Higgins will draw easier coverage assignments, likely finding himself in many one-on-one matchups. Higgins’ size, physicality, and ball skills make him an incredibly easy target on intermediate routes—Burrow’s preferred distance. Having already acclimated to the NFL as a rookie and developed a rapport with Burrow, Higgins is in line for a major breakout season, one in which he should lead the Bengals in receiving yards.
Ja’Marr Chase will be an instant impact player for the Bengals, and his immense talent will enable him to break the mark A.J. Green set a decade ago. However, Chase’s presence will also allow his veteran teammates to flourish, which will allow Higgins (and Boyd) to feast as part of a three-headed monster of a receiving corps.
Cincinnati Bengals Rookie Class Bold Predictions
Jackson Carman will start multiple games at both guard spots this season.
Jackson Carman, the Bengals’ second-round pick out of Clemson, must bear the burden of being an immediate starter on this oft-maligned offensive line. Although Carman played all three seasons at left tackle in college, the Bengals appear to envision him as a guard at the pro level given his lack of arm length and foot speed.
With the free agent acquisition of Riley Reiff at right tackle and the retention of Xavier Su’a-Filo and Quinton Spain, Carman most naturally fits into the starting five as the right guard, as Su’a-Filo and Spain have played mostly left guard in the NFL.
To get the most veteran group protecting Burrow from day one, I expect the Bengals to start one of Su’a-Filo or Spain at their best position while moving Carman to right guard for the start of the season.
Carman may very well be the right guard of the future, but in all likelihood, Carman is the only guard on the roster who factors into the Bengals’ long-term plans on the offensive line. If that is the case, the Bengals should consider moving Carman to left guard at some point during the season.
Not only would this give Carman critical reps at his likely position of the future (and not to mention his more natural side of the line), but this move would also free up opportunities to play sixth-round rookie Trey Hill at right guard.
Hill profiles as a swing interior offensive lineman, and should the Bengals be outside of playoff contention at the end of the season, they should play their offensive line of the future. Even in the case the Bengals are in playoff contention, Spain played competent right guard last season after being signed midway through the year.
Carman will hopefully find his NFL position early with the Bengals, but I expect the team to rotate the line throughout the year to find the best iteration. That will almost certainly mean switching Carman’s side of the line, and fans should expect to see Carman playing multiple positions during the 2021 season.
Cincinnati Bengals Rookie Class Bold Predictions
Joseph Ossai will lead the Bengals in sacks as a rookie.
As bad as the Bengals’ offensive line was last year, the pass rush was also woefully inadequate and only got weaker with the offseason departure of Carl Lawson. The Bengals wisely addressed the need in the draft, getting one of the steals of the second day in Texas rusher Joseph Ossai in round three.
Ossai likely cannot replace Lawson from day one, but he brings the same athletic dynamism to the edge rusher position that Lawson gave the Bengals last season. Ossai’s strengths differ from Lawson’s—Ossai wins with speed versus Lawson’s raw power—but both provide much more to the defense as a pass rusher instead of a run stopper.
As a rookie, the Bengals will likely utilize Ossai’s strengths as a dynamic pass rusher while developing his early-down run-stopping skills, meaning Ossai will play almost all of his snaps on primarily passing downs. Being placed in that position means Ossai will likely have the green light to attack his matchup and go straight for the quarterback, giving him ample opportunities to rack up sacks much like Lawson had last season.
In addition to prioritizing Ossai’s strengths, the Bengals supplemented the defensive line in free agency and the draft. The highlight of the free agency class was former Saints’ defensive end Trey Hendrickson, who received a 4-year, $60 million deal to assume the role of primary pass rusher. Hendrickson will be joined on the front line by former Brown Larry Ogunjobi, with Ogunjobi taking most of his reps at the 3-technique defensive tackle position.
During the draft, the Bengals continued to augment the defensive line, starting with Ossai in round three, then adding two fourth-rounders in Tulane defensive end (and Senior Bowl standout) Cameron Sample and LSU nose tackle Tyler Shelvin. The Bengals dipped once more into the D-line well by spending their last pick on Kansas State defensive end Wyatt Hubert, though Hubert projects primarily as a special teams player if he makes the roster.
With this talent infusion on the defensive line, Ossai will not be the center of attention on pass rush downs. Hendrickson, with 13.5 sacks, will command significant blocking from opposing defenses, while Bengals veteran Sam Hubbard should continue finding success stunting inside on pass-rushing downs. Having an EDGE1 opposite him and significant inside help with Hubbard and D.J. Reader, Ossai will likely find himself with a number of clean lanes to the quarterback.
Though Ossai likely won’t reach double-digit sack totals this year, his dynamism off the edge will be a welcome addition to the Bengals’ line this season. Many of the Bengals’ sacks will come by committee, and it would not be surprising to see Ossai be the leader of that committee, even as a rookie.
Cincinnati Bengals Rookie Class Bold Predictions
D’Ante Smith will earn enough trust from the coaches to start at least one game this season.
As noted above, the Bengals’ offensive line had to be a major point of emphasis in the offseason, and simply selecting one lineman in the draft in Carman would not have been sufficient. The front office understood this, adding developmental offensive tackle D’Ante Smith in the fourth round out of East Carolina.
Smith, like Cameron Sample, had great reps at the Senior Bowl, which helped boost his draft stock. In addition to standing out against similarly talented potential draftees, Smith tested excellently pre-draft, including showing off impressively long arms relative to his peers.
What Smith provides as a prospect in terms of length, speed, and upside, he lacks in functional power and refinement. His technique is currently untenable for an NFL starter and his body needs an offseason in an NFL weight room. These flaws should not be seen as impediments to a successful career, but Smith comes to the Bengals as a project, to be sure.
Because of these hurdles that Smith must overcome, he will assuredly begin the season at the bottom of the depth chart behind more established players like Hakeem Adeniji and Fred Johnson. Adeniji and Johnson, though less talented than Smith, have been battle-tested following last season.
Throughout the course of the season, Smith will overcome his flaws, both with better training and more technical coaching from Frank Pollack, which should allow his natural talent to shine. As the coaches see this development and commitment to his craft, Smith should rise up the depth chart and pass Adeniji and Johnson.
Thus, in the case of injury, it will be Smith, not Adeniji or Johnson, who would get the start. Jonah Williams has played only ten games through two seasons, and Riley Reiff has missed at least one game each of the last five seasons. It would be a miniature miracle to get through the season without either getting hurt, so Smith should get a chance to start at least once during this season.
Cincinnati Bengals Rookie Class Bold Predictions
Evan McPherson will make a field goal over 55 yards this year.
As far as “bold predictions” go for kickers, the options are fairly limited, but the selection of Florida’s Evan McPherson should finally give the Bengals a big leg on special teams.
I have been on record defending Randy Bullock, who performed ably for the Bengals over the last few years with an accurate leg. However, even the most ardent Bullock supporters would admit that his distance was severely lacking, to the point the Bengals would refuse to even attempt long field goals with Bullock. Last year’s replacement Austin Seibert did not fill that distance void on the team either.
McPherson should ease the coaches’ fears about attempting long field goals, as he has proven his reliability beyond 50 yards at Florida. On eight attempts, McPherson converted five, including a 55-yarder last season.
McPherson’s 55-yard field goal from last season would have gone in from 60 or 65 yards, though. His mechanics are ruthlessly efficient and effectively generate power, so he should only continue to add potential distance as he gains strength.
As long as the Bengals change their conservative special teams play-calling following the departure of Bullock, McPherson should get his chance from 55+. With his leg strength and accuracy, that kick will go in.
Cincinnati Bengals Rookie Class Bold Predictions
Chris Evans will score multiple touchdowns this season from over ten yards out.
Chris Evans, a sixth-round pick out of Michigan, was the perfect late-round running back target for the Bengals to replace Giovani Bernard. While Joe Mixon should bear an even larger role this season, the Bengals lack a dynamic backup.
The current backup running backs, Samaje Perine and Trayveon Williams, offer competency behind Mixon, but both lack the game-breaking speed and agility that Evans brings to the table. Evans, after missing 2019 and essentially not playing in 2020, proved his NFL stock with his testing numbers, including a 4.44 40-yard dash.
Evans also has natural receiving abilities, as he was a receiver in high school and caught the ball well at Michigan. The Bengals clearly recognize those skills; when Burrow began extending his range to 40 yards during OTAs, it was Evans on the receiving end of those deep passes.
For Evans, he will not be the choice to replace Mixon should Mixon miss any time with injury. However, his athleticism and catching ability make him a natural choice to spell Mixon during games, giving the offense a chance for a big play with a chunk gain on the ground or a deep pass through the air. That big-play ability should materialize for Evans with multiple big plays that end in touchdowns this season.
Will the Bengals rookies live up to these bold predictions? We’ll have to find out.