Bengals: How Ja’Marr Chase’s rookie season could go based off history

The low end of production for the Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver

The good news is that most of the top-taken wide receivers (especially drafted in the top 10 picks) have done reasonably well in the first full season in the NFL.

Some players have waited a year or two before assuming the starter role, but that is not expected to be the case for Chase in Cincinnati. Instead, he should see the field, but if he fails to live up to expectations, here is what his numbers might look like.

An example of a wide receiver who failed to live up to the high draft status in their first year would be Henry Ruggs III. Taken with the 12th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Ruggs started 12 games last year.

While this is not the whole season, he still performed lower than expectations, only bringing in 26 receptions for 452 yards and two touchdowns. This is not terrible production, but it is definitely not what the Raiders wanted out of their number two wide receiver.

Another player who had a shorter rookie season, but did not meet expectations was Corey Davis. Taken at number five in the 2017 draft by the Titans, Davis only started nine games his rookie year, amassing 34 receptions for 375 yards and no touchdowns. Davis went on to play a full season in his second year and put in much better results, but his first year was a little rocky.

Barring injury, the worst-case scenario for the Bengals and Ja’Marr Chase looks to be something like 30 receptions for 400 yards and one touchdown. If Chase is coming in as a rotational piece this would be fine production, but being listed as a starting wide receiver on the preseason depth chart indicates these numbers would be a big disappointment for Cincinnati.