With training camp, the preseason, and cut downs behind us, we can now focus on the more pressing questions at hand. Who do I start in fantasy this week? Fear not, for I bring my 30 years of experience to answer (some) of those questions, at least in terms of the Cincinnati Bengals and their weekly opponent, in the case of week 1 that would be the Minnesota Vikings.
There is a lot to like about this matchup in terms of fantasy. However, there are many questions still without answers. How will the Bengals’ revamped defense hold up? Will Zac Taylor balance the play calling? How will Chase handle his first action as a pro?
All will be revealed in due time, but since lineups must be set before then, I will attempt to inform, enlighten and guide your Week 1 lineup. A shootout could definitely be in the works for Week 1, the first home opener of the Joe Burrow era, and fantasy points should be plentiful. Let’s go get them! For sake of clarity, all predictions are based on a 12-team, half-point PPR format.
Start ‘Em – Tee Higgins, WR
Tee Higgins had a massive first year as a Bengal. All the former Clemson Tiger did was grab 67 balls for 908 yards and six touchdowns. Had he not gotten dinged in the last game of the season, Higgins could’ve certainly threatened 1,000 yards as a rookie. Not too shabby for a guy that wasn’t generally regarded as one of the top receivers coming out in 2020.
Throw in the fact that a good portion of this was played sans one Joe Burrow, and that makes his rookie campaign even more impressive. With the addition of Ja’Marr Chase as well as the presence of Tyler Boyd, one must wonder if Higgins will continue to ascend as related to fantasy football.
Uh, heck yes.
Higgins showed instant chemistry with Burrow and an ability to run routes and find separation usually seen two or three years in.
Against the Vikings in what could well be one of the highest-scoring games on the slate, you definitely want a part of both offenses, and Higgins is a good place to start. Despite drawing an aging but still elite Patrick Peterson Sunday, Higgins should see enough daylight to produce. Expect 8-10 targets with a very good chance for a score.
Prediction: 6 rec, 87 yards, TD
Start ‘Em – Adam Thielen, WR
Slow, undersized, undrafted, overlooked — Are there enough adjectives to describe Adam Thielen? Despite all of these things, and being on the wrong side of 30, Thielen continued to produce at WR1 level in 2020.
In 15 games Thielen managed almost 1,000 yards, but more importantly, racked up 14 touchdowns and led the league in red-zone targets.
One thing is certain — Kirk Cousins loves him some Adam Thielen. Justin Jefferson might bring the flash to the Viking offense, but Thielen brings the safety and stability that Cousins seeks.
Enter the Bengal defense.
It’s unclear who will be tasked with covering the crafty veteran since Trae Waynes is (again) injured, but either way, they will be facing a tough task. With the secondary likely (for good reason) rolled to Jefferson, Thielen should see plenty of space to work, especially underneath and in tight areas like the red zone where he excels.
Factor in that the Bengals will undoubtedly need to keep at least one safety up in run support to attempt to contain Dalvin Cook, and it should result in a good day for Thielen managers. With Cousins peppering his safety blanket with targets, expect a solid WR2 day from Thielen.
Prediction – 7 rec, 75 yards, TD
Start ‘Em – Evan McPherson, K
Ok, ok, stop already — I know Evan McPherson is a kicker. I know not ALL leagues still start a kicker (they should). Kickers aren’t sexy, kickers are replaceable. Stream your kickers. Just stop!
The Bengals FINALLY may have found their kicker for the next decade in former Florida Gator Evan McPherson. The kicker can be an absolute weapon, assuming you actually have a good one.
How many years did the fan base labor through the likes of Shayne Graham, Randy Bullock, Mike Nugent, etc? Even when they drafted kickers, they either cut them, or they went on to find success elsewhere. Neil Rackers and Jake Elliott ring a bell?
McPherson may actually be the guy the Bengals can run out in a clutch situation, with the game on the line that WON’T pull a calf muscle. McPherson has a huge leg as evidenced by the 57-yard nuclear device he launched against the Dolphins in the preseason. That kick likely would’ve been good from 60+, and in a potentially high-scoring offense like this, he could threaten the top five in total points at his position as a rookie.
If you employ a kicker in fantasy, and if you give bonus points for distance, you absolutely want to tie yourself to McPherson. On what should be a glorious opening Sunday at PBS, look for McPherson to post solid Week 1 numbers.
Prediction: 4-for-4 PAT, 2-for-3 FG, Long: 45+
Sit ‘Em – Joe Burrow, QB
Wow. I didn’t think this would hurt this much.
A potentially high-scoring game, a home opener, Bengal hope renewed and I’m saying sit Joe Burrow. This definitely stings. However, the fantasy analyst in me knows that you, to an extent, have to remove your fandom if you are going to win a championship. As much as I’d love to fire Burrow up in all formats and sit back Sunday and bask in his radiance, we just can’t be sure yet that will happen.
Do I think Burrow will have a good game? Yes, I do. Would I be shocked if he threw for 325 yards and three touchdowns? No I wouldn’t. Am I going to err on the side of caution in terms of fantasy and look elsewhere this week? Freaking right I am!
Truth be told I believe Joe Burrow is a lock for “comeback player of the year”, a Pro Bowl spot, and a lofty perch amongst the elite quarterbacks in the league. However, starting him in Week 1 against a defensive mind like Mike Zimmer isn’t a fantastic idea, especially if you like shaming your weekly opponent.
I do believe the Bengals have a very good chance to win this game, and I do believe Burrow will post solid, if unspectacular numbers. Let’s give the franchise a couple of weeks to get his sea legs under him then we can fire him up weekly and reap the rewards.
Prediction- 21-of-32, 278 yards, 2 TD
Sit ‘Em – Ja’Marr Chase, WR
I’m not sure if this is an obvious call because frankly, I don’t own a whole lot of Ja’Marr Chase shares in any of my leagues. Chase could just as easily roar out of the gate with two touchdowns as he could two catches.
The problem here is usage. We just don’t know how heavily he will be involved in the offense. While many analysts have anointed him the de facto WR1 in Cincinnati, I still think its a three-headed-monster with each player picking off lead for an individual stat.
For instance, I have Tyler Boyd leading the team in catches, Tee Higgins leading in yards, and Chase leading in touchdowns. Is this wishy washy? Maybe. Should we shoot our shot and go all in on a rookie receiver that struggled in the preseason with a quarterback coming back from a devastating knee injury? Nope.
Practice temperance here Who Dey faithful and sit on Chase until you see what his role will actually be. I’m expecting a quiet September then a splash ala Justin Jefferson, and the rest will be no looking back. In the meantime, keep him tucked away, stay patient and reap the rewards later in the season.
Prediction: 3 rec, 44 yards
Sit ‘Em – Justin Jefferson, WR
Call this the ultimate contrarian play, call it wrong, call it foolish, but I just don’t expect Justin Jefferson to go big Sunday. Also I call this a “sit” with an asterisk. Probably if you own Jefferson you have fairly high draft capital tied up. That’s to be expected. Also it is also good policy to “start your studs”, so if you feel compelled to start Jefferson, also be prepared to be let down.
On paper this game looks like one in which Dalvin Cook and Jefferson should run wild. However the games aren’t played on paper, and typically defenses, especially ones with a new scheme or fresh infusion of talent tend to hold up better early in the season. Of course eventually, injury, etc will cause the eventual downward spiral (let’s hope not this year), but look no further than the last two openers, where an overmatched Bengal defense performed admirably against the Seahawks and Chargers respectively.
To just assume a defense will be bad this year, just because they were last year is short sighted. Teams generally attempt to fix deficiencies either via the draft or free agency. The Bengals are no different.
The Vikings offensive line is not good. The Bengals will be sporting perhaps the deepest line rotation on defense they have seen in a decade. I expect a steady dose of Cook, but I also expect Lou Anarumo to dial up different looks and bring the heat on Kirk Cousins.
If this happens and the home crowd supplies the PBS home field advantage, Cousins could be running for his life too much to allow Jefferson to shake open in that intermediate range he thrives in.
Prediction – 5 rec, 62 yards
While notable players absent from my predictions, does anyone really need to be told to start Dalvin Cook or Joe Mixon? Championships are won making the not so obvious decisions.
However above all, have fun with it. Follow your players and root on the home team. A win over the Vikings will go a long way towards a good season.