What a glorious Sunday we all just experienced. Not only did the Cincinnati Bengals crush the Steelers convincingly in Pittsburgh, they also bullied them as well.
Now, kids, bullying is bad…in most cases. However, when it comes to the Bengal vs Steeler rivalry, bullying is good, especially when you are the one doing the bullying. While we all bask in the warm glow of victory, the Bengals are getting prepared for a Thursday night tilt with Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Let me be clear upfront — I DO NOT LIKE Thursday night games.
These players take a beating and three days just isn’t enough time to recover. However the NFL loves to be on primetime, and Thursday Night Football has proven to be hugely successful, at least from a ratings perspective.
The football however, is usually sloppy and disjointed due to the time constraints in regard to installing a game plan. Be that as it may, the fantasy industry and the NFL marches on, and I’m here to try to keep you in step.
After a rough Week 2, I bounced back nicely in Week 3 to deliver a solid call to start Joe Burrow, the Bengals defense, and Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth. While I whiffed on the sit call for Najee Harris, putting Big Ben down on the bench, figuratively of course, though I suspect the city of Pittsburgh might want to take that literally, was a nice call as well.
I’ll call the Tee Higgins sit a push since he didn’t play. Hey, I admit my misses, so I’m going to claim my hits! Let’s take a look at Thursday night’s game and see what we can see!
Start ‘Em – Joe Mixon
I’ll admit I am hesitant to call Joe Mixon a start this week. It’s nothing to do with the prowess of Jacksonville’s defense, as they are a little short in the prowess department thus far in 2021. No, rather what concerns me is the 19 touches Mixon had on Sunday against Pittsburgh. Mixon doesn’t handle 19 touches the way some players would.
Instead of ducking out of bounds, Mixon initiates contact, so 19 touches for Mixon is like being in 19 little car wrecks. The dude is gonna be sore. My natural thought process is to fade guys coming off heavy workloads, into short weeks. I’m going against that thought process this week. Even though Jacksonville is coming off a decent game defensively against Arizona, they are very beatable on the ground.
Have I mentioned this is a primetime game? At home? The Bengals also unveil the new Ring of Honor. With a chance to go 3-1 to start the season, remain in first place, and change the national narrative as well, the Jungle should be raucous, and Mixon definitely feeds off the crowd.
Considering his competitive nature, everything at stake, and a chance for Mixon to shine before a nationwide audience, I expect the Bengals running back to be more than up to the task, even on a short week.
Start Mixon.
Prediction: 17 carries, 105 yards; 4 receptions, 35 yards, 1 TD
Start ‘Em – James Robinson
I can’t let the Bengals have all the fun, right?
One of the biggest surprises of the season in 2020, and one of the few Jacksonville bright spots, was that undrafted running back James Robinson burst onto the scene with over 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns. Not too shabby for a guy that wasn’t good enough to get drafted.
Fast forward one year, and despite a new coach, new quarterback, and a new running back being drafted, (the injured Travis Etienne), Robinson is back to doing Robinson-type things. Against Arizona, Robinson logged 21 touches and 134 yards from scrimmage, to go along with a touchdown.
Yes, I have expressed my distaste for Thursday Night Football, but the important thing to note for fantasy here is what happened in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Despite the win, Steeler Najee Harris had over 100 receiving yards from the running back position.
Don’t think Jacksonville didn’t notice the success that Harris had as a receiver. While Robinson isn’t the dynamic talent that Harris is, the need should exist for Jacksonville to utilize quick, dump-off type passes to keep the suddenly potent Bengal pass rush off the golden child, Trevor Lawrence.
I don’t expect much RUNNING room for Robinson, but eight catches and 120 total yards is definitely possible, putting Robinson squarely in the solid RB2 discussion for Week 4.
Prediction: 15 Carries, 68 yards, 7 Receptions, 55 yards, 0 TD
Start ‘Em – Joe Burrow
Calling Joe Burrow a start this week against the Jags is sort of like calling water wet — Everyone should assume that’s the case.
Burrow put up a modest stat line against the Steelers, though he did hit three touchdowns, mostly due to a very conservative game plan. I get it, Zac Taylor. You are easing the franchise back in. Fine.
The game plan at Pittsburgh worked out fine and Burrow took zero sacks, and he looked comfortable and confident. Perhaps that’s why Taylor gets paid to coach and I don’t. Either way, I think the fan base, fantasy or otherwise has a request this week. Throw the damn ball!
Thursday night is a huge game for this franchise. The unveiling of the Ring of Honor, something many of us never thought we would see is a big deal. There will be a lot of history and nostalgia at Paul Brown Stadium.
This is an opportunity to change the national perception, gain momentum going into October, and establish the Bengals as a contender in the AFC North. Can anyone name a better way to make this happen than riding Burrow to a big game?
Put the franchise on display for a national audience and announce the arrival of the Bengals as a force in the AFC. Burrow should get 35 attempts minimum and a chance to put up 350 yards and a couple of scores. It’s time!
Prediction: 24-of-35, 380 yards, 3 TD
Sit ‘Em – Trevor Lawrence
Number one overall pick Trevor Lawrence, he of the golden locks and all-American pedigree, travels to Paul Brown Stadium for the first primetime game of his professional career. He is also seeking the first victory of his professional career.
Lawrence was perhaps the greatest high school and college quarterback ever, so one could only imagine what this rocky start is doing to his psyche. His play thus far in 2021 has been uneven, and Lawrence looks uncomfortable.
How much of that falls on first-year coach Urban Meyer remains to be seen, but Lawrence has been rattled into uncharacteristic mistakes and has thrown seven picks in three games. Not good.
Thursday night should be the loudest environment he has played in on the professional level, and while Lawrence is no stranger to playing in the national spotlight, he arguably played with better talent at Clemson than what he is surrounded with now.
Look for Lou Anarumo to attempt to confuse Lawrence with multiple fronts and blitzes, and the Bengal defense to harass him into multiple mistakes. There’s a very good chance that Lawrence usage is already low in fantasy, but don’t get fooled into starting him in DFS by a low price. Stay away.
Prediction: 19-of-31, 227, 1 TD, 2 Int
Sit ‘Em – Laviska Shenault Jr.
Not to be confused with Laviska Shenault Sr., Shenault Jr., the speedy second-year possession receiver from Jacksonville has yet to live up to expectations. It was expected that Shenault would be utilized as a Swiss Army knife type receiver, with jet sweeps, bubble screens, and lots of yards after catch. That has yet to come to fruition.
Don’t expect this to be the week. Why, you ask? Thanks for asking!
In recent seasons, attacking the Bengals defense and waiting for the inevitable missed tackles was usually a very good strategy. Guess what though? The defense has been doing well. Not missing tackles! Also keeping everything in front of them, which is not a good type of defense to use a jitterbug, short-area guy like Shenault against.
In short, Laviska should be shelved this week. If you play in a full point PPR format, perhaps Shenault could be utilized as a flex, or very low-end WR 3. I could see a decent number of targets, but with his ADot (average depth of target) being well under 10 yards, to expect more than 8-10 fantasy points from Shenault may be a bit of a reach.
Pass on Jr. in daily and season-long, at least for this week.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 44 yards, 0 TD
Sit ‘Em – Tyler Boyd
I had to sit one Bengal, right? Well, allow me to tell you why Tyler Boyd is the (not) man this week. While Boyd only saw six targets, hauling in four for 36 yards and a touchdown, he played a very physical game. Boyd took several hard shots, and with only three days rest, and hopefully the return of Tee Higgins, this could be a good spot to fade Boyd in deference to the two more high-profile targets in Higgins and Chase.
Boyd was the emotional leader Sunday in Pittsburgh, and the energy expended on the field reflected such. Perhaps it is a reach, but it could be fair to think the emotional energy Boyd showed in the Pittsburgh defeat could lead to something of a letdown against the Jags.
Maybe that’s reading too much into the psychological aspect of the game, but it would be only human to have a letdown, right? Let’s just hope it isn’t an organizational letdown. For now, I’ll just say Boyd is a sit and hope for the best.
Boyd is currently going around 5200.00 in DFS. That’s too rich for my blood. Let Boyd sit this week.
Prediction: 4 Rec, 47 Yards, 0 TD
There you go! Like I said before I prefer to skip the Thursday game for fantasy, but if you insist on having fantasy action on the game, these are your best bets. As always, above all enjoy what’s shaping up to be a very interesting Thursday night!