It doesn’t seem like that long ago that any start/sit column focusing strictly on the Cincinnati Bengals consisted mostly of start the opponent, and sit your Bengals, providing you even rostered any Bengals. A dicey proposition considering Zac Taylor’s record his first two seasons.
Of course there was the occasional outlier such as Tee Higgins strong play in the second half of last year, and Samaje Perine playing well down the stretch, but let’s face it, if you were playing Perine in fantasy last year, things went off the rails in a bad way.
However something funny happened on the way to Zac Taylor being fired. 5 and 2 happened.
A soul cleansing win in Pittsburgh, and the systematic annihilation of the hated Ravens in Baltimore have turned this once doomed franchise into the darlings of the NFL. This team is good. Damn good.
The Franchise, Joe Burrow, is healthy and locked in, first round stud Ja’Marr Chase is breaking records, and Joe Mixon is running like he cares. What does this mean for fantasy? Well it makes my job easier, but on the flip side, anyone can tell you to start Burrow and Chase.
The real key to success in fantasy is finding the hidden gems. The guys that aren’t so obvious. So let’s grab our lanterns, get a pick and shovel, and try to mine some of these not so obvious hidden gems, shall we?
Worst case scenario, I’m wrong on all my calls but we can still enjoy a thorough grounding of the Jets in New York.
Start ‘Em – Bengals D/ST
So we have covered this before, right? I know many leagues, especially different formats such as super flex, two quarterback, etc no longer roster defenses. Have you ever heard the expression “old school”? Pleased to meet you, I’m old school.
Many in the fantasy industry bemoan the use of defenses as nothing but luck. Maybe it is. However, is it really? The savvy manager won’t roster the same fantasy defense all season, rather they will look at the matchups and stream defenses.
See who the Jets are starting at quarterback this week? Some guy named Mike White (if that’s his real name). Full stream ahead baby!
The Bengal defense is for real, a seven game sample size is sufficient to make that statement. Last week versus the Ravens, this new look defense hemmed in Lamar Jackson and harassed him all afternoon. Does anyone think the Jets are going to be any better?
The turning point for this defense has been the maturation of Logan Wilson and Akeem Davis-Gaither, as well as the health of last years free agent signing D.J. Reader. Throw in stalwart Sam Hubbard, a few more key signings in Chidobe Awuzie, Trey Hendrickson and Larry Ogunjobi, and you have a unit that’s a mix of experience, youth, and incredible speed as evidenced on several of the sacks on Jackson last week.
This unit should have no problem making Mike White think about a job in the public sector. Full stream ahead!
Prediction: 5 sacks, 2 INT, 1 defensive score
Start ‘Em – Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins has been off as of late. I’ve had a difficult time getting a feel for how he will perform on a week to week basis. Odd because in 2020 Higgins was consistently the best receiver the Bengals had.
Cue 2021, and Higgins has taken a clear back seat to Ja’Marr Chase, and rightfully so. Chase is a baller who is virtually uncoverable. However that doesn’t mean Higgins doesn’t have value. In fact if the Bengals are going to make a serious playoff push, Tee Higgins is going to have to be a big part of it.
It’s my feeling that this started in Week 7 versus Baltimore. Higgins was far and away the target leader on the offense with a whopping 15. Kids, that’s an elite level target share. Burrow only managed to connect on seven of those targets for 62 yards, not a bad stat line, but 15 targets should merit higher output.
Watching and rewatching the game I noted that Burrow tended to sail a couple of his throws high and outside, and at least once the two appeared to be on a completely different page. These are all fixable issues that will be remedied with reps.
Remember Higgins doesn’t have the luxury of knowing Burrow from college and having an instant rapport like Chase does. That being said, in a game that projects to have fewer points scored, my feeling is Burrow will continue to iron out the chemistry issues with Higgins and feed him targets like a hungry baby.
Roll him out as a WR 3 with upside.
Prediction: 8 rec, 90 yards, 1 TD
Start ‘Em – Corey Davis
The former Tennessee Titan first rounder Corey Davis posted a modest stat line in a catch up game against the Patriots in Week 7. Davis caught four of six targets for 47 yards, but he did score a touchdown which saved his fantasy day. In fact, even though the Jets only have five sad touchdown passes on the year, Davis has caught four of them.
Despite their record, the Jets do actually have a couple decent players that if the Bengals defense doesn’t plan accordingly for, could provide some fantasy value. Michael Carter is a nice pass catching back that should be Mike White’s best friend, and Jamison Crowder should be able to soak up the targets from the slot, but the only playable Jet is Davis.
Sunday against the Jets, Chidobe Awuzie will be matched up with Davis. Awuzie gives up three inches to the 6’3″ Davis, but he has also easily been the Bengals best cover corner. With the presence of Von Bell and Jessie Bates helping out, Chidobe should be able to hang with Davis, but it wouldn’t be a shock if Davis was able to use his size advantage to pull down an end zone shot.
You can start Davis in your flex at your own peril, but hope for a touchdown to rescue your afternoon.
Prediction: 5 rec, 48 yards, 1 TD
Sit ‘Em – Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon had a nice game against the Ravens. A NICE game. He gutted through a lingering foot injury and posted a respectable stat line of 12-59-1. It’s notable, however, that Mixon didn’t catch a single pass in a game that was pass heavy. Presumably that was due to Mixon needing to chip and block against the Ravens blitz. Either way, one or two would’ve been nice. Just saying.
A closer look at the stats shows something else. Samaje Perine, Mixon’s backup, posted a nearly similar stat line of 11-52-1. Perine also played 30 snaps to Mixon’s 34.
Now before we get all silly and start using words like “timeshare“, it’s important to note that Mixon is still a bit hobbled. Also, it’s important to note that this game script allowed Perine to pound the ball and run the clock out, while Mixon worked on his post game Instagram dance moves.
Against the Jets, in a game that should be in control from the coin toss, Mixon should get the lions share of the work until the game is in hand, but that SHOULD only be until early third quarter. In a game where the Bengals are huge favorites, with a huge AFC North tilt on the horizon, and a bye week after, expect Mixon to be working on his dance moves early while Perine and Chris Evans run out the clock.
If you have another back in a more neutral game script that could dictate 20+ touches, start him. Remember kids, in fantasy, opportunity is king.
Prediction: 12 carries, 66 yards, 0 TD
Sit ‘Em – All Jet Running Backs
When the Jets selected Michael Carter in the 2021 NFL Draft, many experts handed him the job by default. Despite the fact that Carter is slightly undersized at 5’8″, and his draft capital was fairly modest as a fifth round pick, the other candidates for carries in the backfield, to put it nicely, were suspects rather than prospects. However that hasn’t kept new Jets coach Robert Saleh from turning this backfield into a complete quagmire.
Many fantasy experts point to Carter’s week seven stat line of 11 rushes for 37 yards, and eight receptions for 67 as evidence that the reigns have finally been handed to the former Tarheel. I am going to need to see stronger evidence than an artificially inflated (yet still mediocre) stat line created by a blowout game.
The Jets basically make no attempt to establish a running game, and even when they do run, Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman are sprinkled in.
If and when the Bengals establish enough of a lead to flip the game script to catchup mode for the Jets, can you really trust Carter to be the beneficiary? Ty Johnson has three fewer targets than Carter through seven weeks, so it’s just as likely to be a Johnson game as a Carter game.
Michael Carter should be a good player at some point in his career, but with Mike White at quarterback, against the Bengals swarming defense, it’s not going to be this week.
Prediction: 11 carries, 44 yards. 4 rec, 38 yards, 0 TD
Sit ‘Em – Tyler Boyd
This hurts my heart, for reals. I have long been a Tyler Boyd truther and still feel like he is one of the five best slot receivers in the league. However, within the framework of this offense, Boyd’s role has been somewhat diminished.
The emergence of Ja’Marr Chase as not only a deep threat, but a receiver capable of working the short areas of the field have cut into Boyd’s opportunities. Factor in that Joe Burrow has taken a shine to C.J. Uzomah and we are seeing fewer opportunities for Boyd.
Just looking at the numbers, Boyd is the WR2, but does it feel like it? Thirty-two catches for 329 yards and a touchdown leads Tee Higgins (minus touchdowns), but all signs point to Zac Taylor trying to get Higgins more involved in the offense. Higgins also missed two games due to injury, for what it’s worth.
The thought before the season was this offense could support three fantasy relevant receivers, but who envisioned Ja’Marr Chase balling out like this? Who pictured C.J. Uzomah having five touchdowns and being a legitimate threat down the seam?
No, no you didn’t, and neither did I. That’s why we study, look at the numbers, and make adjustments.
Tyler Boyd will still have a big game or splash play now and then, but trying to predict when is like trying to predict Cincinnati weather. Don’t bother, you’re just going to be wrong. Leave T-Boyd on the bench for now and hope his role gains definition after Thanksgiving.
There you go kids, my best attempt at NOT being wrong. Who ever thought we would be discussing playoffs or fantasy relevant Bengals at Halloween?
Let’s just enjoy the ride and attempt to will our team to another victory.