Doubting Joe Burrow is never the smart play; he’s made a living by proving people wrong. If you want to make the smart move, bet on Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow to win the 2022 NFL MVP while you can.
As of right now, Joe Burrow is tied for fourth in MVP odds for next season, per WynnBET.
As a quarterback-dominant award, it’s not surprising that Burrow makes it pretty high on this list. Before explaining why he’s a smart bet, let’s look at the guys either tied with him or in front of him.
Joe Burrow MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes (+750) and Aaron Rodgers (+1000)
There is no denying the talent of these two quarterbacks, but there is also no denying the talent they lost this offseason. Miami traded for Tyreek Hill, and Las Vegas traded for Davante Adams, both significant losses to these quarterbacks. I’m not buying Aaron Rodgers’ ability to three-peat on this award, and I’m certainly not buying the Chiefs as legit contenders next season. I’m out on these two.
Justin Herbert (+1200)
Justin Herbert tied with Joe Burrow is a tad disrespectful on its own, but to come in at fourth on the list is blasphemous. Justin Herbert has never won a playoff game, let alone played in one. He’s had talent around him since entering the league; I’m not in on him as an MVP contender.
Tom Brady (+1200) and Josh Allen (+600)
Tom Brady couldn’t stay away, could he? With the NFC wide-open, there is a strong chance the Buccaneers finish first in their conference, which helps Brady’s MVP case out tremendously. I fully expect Brady to be a finalist for this award next season.
Josh Allen and the Bills are the heavy betting favorite in the AFC. After a heartbreaking finish to their 2021 campaign, the Bills loaded up their already potent roster. If Josh Allen continues to evolve, I see no reason why he isn’t a finalist for this award.
Why Joe Burrow Can Win MVP
Per Pro Football Focus, Joe Burrow was the NFL’s highest-ranked quarterback last season, ahead of all five players I listed above. Last year, he performed at an elite level behind a sub-par offensive line; he won’t have to worry about that in 2022.
After signing La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras, many of the holes on last years’ line are patched. Left Guard is still a question mark, but Zac Taylor and Frank Pollack will fill the position accordingly.
The Bengals will also return their big three at the wide receiver position with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. After losing C.J. Uzomah in free agency, the Bengals arguably brought a better receiving tight end in Hayden Hurst. Everything, personnel-wise, is setting up for Joe Burrow to have a monstrous year.
If Burrow wants to win MVP, here are three things that need to happen:
- The Bengals win the AFC North for a second consecutive season.
- Burrow stays healthy, plays an entire season.
- Burrow limits his interceptions, throws less than 10.
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The yards and touchdowns will come as expected, but if Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals can achieve those three goals, I truly believe he is the smartest bet for the 2022 NFL MVP. At +1200 odds, a mere $10 investment could buy you a Steak Burrow, medium-rare.