When the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football, they’ll face one of the best and underrated running backs in the NFL as Jaylen Warren risks exposing an improved but still vulnerable Cincinnati run defense.
Following a transatlantic flight and a relatively short week, hopefully, Al Golden had time to put together a game plan to stop the Steelers’ attack centered on Warren, which they will predictably employ.
Here are a couple of advanced stats that explain the threat the Steelers’ running back poses to the Bengals’ defense and what Cincinnati could try to counter.
Warren breaks tackles at breakneck pace
According to Pro Football Reference, Warren is third in broken tackles behind Kenneth Walker and Bucky Irving. Warren ranks fifth in yards after contact.
Adding to the Bengals’ nightmare fuel, Warren leads the league in yards after contact per rushing attempt and rush attempts per broken tackle.
All of this adds up to Warren ranking sixth overall in rushing yards through Week 9, but fourth among the teams that have only played eight games thus far.
Warren has been so lethal as a rusher this season that the Steelers can hand him the ball on a 3rd-and-13 and hope he can pick up a first down. And that is something that we could feasibly see happening against the Bengals' defense.
Cincinnati’s defense is much improved in certain areas this season compared to recent, horrifying performances. Nevertheless, rushing yards allowed remains a concern.
When teams run the ball against them, the Bengals’ 5.0 yards allowed per attempt ranks last in the NFL. Therefore, Cincinnati must get off to a strong and fast start against Pittsburgh, limiting Warren’s chances to impact the game by rushing the ball.
Also, while the defense has come a long way since missing what felt like every tackle last season, they have the seventh-most missed tackles in the league. They have the third-most among teams that have played only eight games thus far.
Warren’s untouched head start
Warren has some help in becoming one of the best running backs in the league this year. He is in a scheme and surrounded by players who have him leading the NFL in yards before contact.
One of the biggest advantages Warren has, literally and figuratively, is tight end Darnell Washington as an extra blocker that no other team can deploy every week.
Warren is already one of the best in the NFL at breaking tackles and yards after contact. His not getting contacted until farther downfield than any other running back in the league makes him even harder for defenses to stop.
And that makes Warren an even more unique challenge for Cincinnati.
Furthermore, the Bengals have been poor this year at defending outside runs, something Atlanta did successfully last week. And surely the Steelers’ coaching staff has no doubt clocked it on film as well.
If Warren makes it to the edge, three yards beyond the line of scrimmage untouched, it could portend unpleasant outcomes for Cincinnati’s defense.
However, many of Warren’s most explosive runs have come from between the tackles. If the Bengals defense can get to him before he reaches the second level, they have a chance to slow him down. If not, it could be a long evening for Al Golden and the Bengals’ defense.
If the Bengals can rely on their interior defensive line, led by Dexter Lawrence, they have a chance of at least slowing Warren and limiting his impact on Sunday’s matchup.
Dexter Lawrence key to keeping Warren in check
Lawrence is key to limiting Warren up the middle, as he ranks 10th in run-stop win rate, according to ESPN.
According to Fantasy Points Data, the Bengals are third in defensive run stuff rates. And the Bengals will need all the pre-Thanksgiving stuffing they can get against Warren and the Steelers’ offensive rushing attack.
It appears that those run-stuff rates are contingent on Lawrence being on the field. The Bengals allow a 47% successful run rate, the eighth-best, when he is on the field. When he is off, Cincinnati is last with a 66.1% success rate against them.
As much as we would all love for Lawrence to never leave the field, that just isn’t feasible. So when he is off the field, the Bengals could try something new.
Another thing Cincinnati’s defensive coordinator must consider is blitzing more. Or, as our own Matt Fitzgerald put it, Golden must channel his inner Brian Flores.
The Bengals rank 31st in blitz percentage at 17.7%. At the other end of that are the Minnesota Vikings, who blitz 67.6% of the time.
What we are suggesting here is not blitzes to fluster Rodgers, although that could be a byproduct. Send extra pressure specifically on run blitzes when defensive coordinator Al Golden thinks that the Steelers might hand the ball off.
That could slow Warren’s NFL-leading 3.8 yards before contact and hopefully support a run defense that is less effective when Lawrence isn’t on the field.
Occam’s Razor approach to Warren problem
However, when it comes to slowing Warren on Sunday, the key may not be the advanced numbers at all. As simple as it sounds, the Bengals must tackle better. There is no need for schemes, advanced stats, or existential philosophical analysis here.
The first person to the ball can’t try to peanut punch. The first person to the ball must secure the tackler. Then, as we were all taught in Pop Warner, junior high, and high school football, everyone gets to the ball. Once reinforcements arrive, the second person tries to get the ball out.
It is not dissimilar to when tight ends and running backs break several tackles. After the first few broken attempts, the most important thing is to bring the carrier down before he can do further damage.
One reason why the Bengals allowed only the 12th-most rushing yards is that teams aren't trying to run the ball against them. The 201 rushing attempts against them are the seventh-fewest this season.
Offenses are struggling to keep up with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins this year, forcing teams to abandon the run earlier than they would like.
The offense must do its part by jumping out to an early lead, limiting Warren's rushing opportunities.
Bengals can’t get added to Warren’s All-Pro argument
Jaylen Warren is in the midst of an All-Pro season. He is on pace for the best season of his five-year career, by a significant margin. He already has 704 rushing yards this season after accumulating 958 yards all of last year.
The Pittsburgh back is averaging 88.0 yards per game rushing. His previous best was 59.9, which he set last season in his first year as RB1.
Warren is also leaving his previous receiving marks in the dust. He is averaging 11.8 yards per reception, 8.2 receiving yards per target, and 36.8 receiving yards per game. His previous high marks of 8.3, 7.4, and 21.8 in those categories, respectively, are as far behind as would-be tacklers left in his wake this year.
We can only hope Golden is cooking up a genius-level game plan to contain Warren. Maybe that will include dialing up more run-blitzes than we’re used to seeing from his defense.
Nevertheless, the keys to slowing Warren could be as simple as tackling better, keeping Lawrence on the field longer, and getting the offense out to a lead.
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