Advanced stats say Bengals should run well against Jags while raw stats say otherwise

The Cincinnati Bengals should have an advantage over the Jacksonville Jaguars when running the ball. However, that all depends on whom you believe. More specifically, which stats are more important to you?

In one way, the Bengals should run running back Chase Brown all the way to a victory. On the other hand, they should limit their rushing attempts, which would be music to Zac Taylor’s ears. 

We will break down each side and let Cincinnati’s game plan sort it out, as if we have something to do with it. 

The data suggests Chase Brown is about to run wild in Week 4

When the Bengals take on the Jaguars, we should expect them to run the ball. After all, they will have a distinct advantage in run-block and run-stop win rates. 

The Bengals lead the league with a 79% run-block win rate. Conversely, Jacksonville ranks 29th in run-stop win rate at 26%.

Those two factors suggest the Bengals will run the ball early and often. 

It is easy to see why the Bengals rank so highly when you look at the individual parts.

Dalton Risner leads all guards with an 89% run-block win rate. He also leads all offensive linemen in that category, sans Dion Dawkins, who shares the same percentage.

Amarius Mims and Orlando Brown Jr. rank sixth and seventh among all tackles, with an 84% and 83% rate, respectively.

Cincinnati may need to lean on the rushing attack to slow the Jaguars’ high-powered offense. Jacksonville is averaging nearly 30 points per game. They have the best point differential in the NFL, with their opponents averaging just under ten points per outing. 

The Bengals’ best shot may be to drag the game into the mud by incessantly running the ball based on the run-block and run-stop metrics. 

But don’t worry if that does not sound appealing to you. Taylor wouldn’t consider running the ball more. Not even with a lead. 

Bottom-line results of Bengals rushing attack tell a very different story

If the advanced stats say the Bengals should run the ball against the Jags’ defense, the counting stats that harken back to the pre-chess-bookification era say otherwise. 

Jacksonville ranks eighth in rushing yards allowed and ninth in yards per carry, suggesting that running the ball may be unwise.

They have not allowed a running back more than 39 yards in a contest this season. That came against the Denver Broncos and rookie Jonah Coleman. 

The most rushing yards per attempt they’ve given up is to the Cleveland Browns, who reached 4.0 per rush thanks to Deshaun Watson’s scrambling and a few rushes from wideout KC Concepcion.

In the most important stat for a defense, the Jaguars are the best, surrendering the fewest points in the first three weeks of the season. 

In the traditional stats, the Bengals rank 27th in rushing yards, 26th in rushing attempts, and 18th in yards per carry.

Chase Brown specifically is averaging 4.0 yards per carry this season. If he were to do that against the Jaguars on Sunday, that would be the highest of any running back to face Jacksonville this season.  

This year, several inconsistent stats keep popping up. We can get into Orlando Brown’s and Amarius Mims’ elite run-block win rates, according to ESPN, versus their below-average, negative-graded run-block percentages another time. 

The Bengals’ offensive line, the league-best run-block win-rate unit, is number-one despite being 27th in rushing yards. 

For the Jaguars, holding opposing running backs to a maximum of 39 yards per carry doesn't align with the 26th-ranked run-stop win rate ESPN gives them. 

So which will rule the day? Will Jacksonville live down to their run-stop win rates and the Bengals up to their run-block win rates, or will the raw counting stats show the limits of advanced metrics? 

For the Bengals’ sake, let’s hope that their number-one advanced ranking Rules the Dey and translates into rushing success.

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