It has not been a fun offseason in Cincinnati. Despite, like, a billion dollars worth of contract extensions for core players being handed out, somehow it's still been a kinda miserable few months. I guess that's the price you pay for having too many good players on your team? Right? That's definitely what it is?
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By now, Bengals fans are ready for literally any bit of good news. Literally anything that can distract from 30-minute Trey Hendrickson interviews that get aggregated into oblivion for following next five days will do. Even if it's, for example, some weird math that says the Bengals only have a 60% of making the playoffs this season. It doesn't even need to be a bold prediction – any guess that is even a little bit optimistic would be a great way to launch into the summer. Fortunately, ESPN is always up to the task – this week, they set out to answer a simple question: are the Bengals going to make the playoffs?
ESPN makes the most tepid argument for the Bengals' playoff chances you'll read all day
"Probably! Cincinnati's 2024 campaign disappointingly ended in the regular season despite quarterback Joe Burrow ranking third in QBR, the best performance of his career. But defense held the Bengals back, as they ranked 23rd in EPA allowed per play and particularly struggled against the run, ranking 30th in EPA in defending rushing plays.
But the lack of year-to-year continuity that happens with good defenses also happens with weaker units. Cincinnati replaced defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo with Al Golden this offseason, which increases the FPI's uncertainty on that side of the ball. Ultimately, the model forecasts the Bengals to have an average defense, which moves them to No. 7 in the overall rankings. The Ravens are by far the most likely AFC North champion at 54%, and the Bengals are next at 29%. But Cincinnati has a 60% chance to reach the playoffs. That makes it the fourth-most-likely playoff team in the AFC after missing the postseason the past two seasons."
Probably! That's what I like to hear. Honestly, all the rest of the numbers behind that don't even matter. I'm sure they're right, and I bet they're even interesting, but they don't matter. ESPN thinks the Bengals will probably make the playoffs, and considering how last season ended and this offseason started, I'll take that all day long. The Bengals are probably making the playoffs. Things are looking up.