Bengals' Myles Murphy faces tough reality after rival Nick Herbig's extension

The 2023 draft picks’ fifth-year options and extensions continue to come in. Noticeably missing from those is the Cincinnati Bengals’ 2023 28th overall pick, Myles Murphy. 

Now, another edge rusher has received a massive contract extension. This time, it is from the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers, who gave edge rusher Nick Herbig a brand-new deal.

Consequently, some of us will wonder how Herbig’s new contract status will affect Murphy’s. However, we should not. But just in case you were wondering, do not expect Herbig's new deal to have any bearing on future negotiations between the Bengals' defensive end.

Steelers finally show Nick Herbig big love, and dollars

Ahead of this year’s draft, we argued to no avail that the Bengals should make an uncomfortable phone call to their hated rival to check on the availability of Herbig. 

Just when we were ready to spin the block on that idea, news came in that the talented yet underused outside linebacker signed a mammoth $100 million extension. 

Now, the new Steelers regime has 100 million reasons to get Herbig on the field more, much to the dismay of quarterbacks around the league. 

On the bright side, perhaps that opens the door for Pittsburgh’s willingness to move Alex Highsmith, another Steelers edge rusher who could be a possible target for the Bengals to land. 

But before we get ahead of ourselves…

Myles Murphy’s projected market value pales in comparison

Spotrac puts Murphy’s market value at $32.7 million over three years, with an annual value of $10.9 million. That is a nice payday for a player who has yet to show that he can be a consistent pass rusher. 

For comparison, Murphy’s former teammate and current New York Jets defensive end Joseph Ossai landed a $34.5 million deal over three years with an annual value of $11.5 million this offseason. 

Murphy’s contract value is well below Ossai’s, according to Spotrac, for the moment. To be fair, Spotrac’s projected value for Herbig before his extension was $56 million over four years with an annual value of $14 million.

Now, Herbig’s annual value is $25 million. So there’s that.

However, being a first-round pick and teams’ desire to upgrade in that department, Murphy’s initial draft status will have a fanbase saying “he was a first-round pick” and posting his highlights all over Twitter, err, X, next offseason.

Nevertheless, it is difficult to imagine a franchise giving Murphy a commensurate deal. 

Nick Herbig’s extension probably won’t help Myles Murphy at all

It is an agent’s job to get the best possible deal for their client. Yet, and unfortunately, comparing Herbig’s impact with limited playing time to Murphy’s shouldn’t come up in contract negotiations.

Last season, Herbig, on limited snaps, led the NFL in edge pass rush win rates. That is the famous metric that talking heads use to determine how disruptive an edge rusher is. 

Herbig ranked better in that category than Nik Bonitto, Micah Parsons, Will Anderson Jr., Abdul Carter, and even Myles Garrett. 

Expect the conversations around Murphy's contract next offseason to involve numbers in the range of Ossai's or, on the upper end, 2021 Trey Hendrickson or 2026 Boye Mafe, which would put him between $15 and $20 million per year.

Again, that would be an amazing contract for Murphy to sign. But after seeing what Herbig got, he and his representatives may be aiming higher.

Hope remains for Myles Murphy to land Herbig-sized contract

Hendrickson turned his fourth year with the Saints into a big contract with the Bengals. Comparisons suggest a similar trajectory could be on the way for Murphy. 

Furthermore, Herbig has had more talent in his short career thus far than Murphy. So even in limited action, Herbig has been put in a better position to succeed. That excuse has flown out the window with the Bengals' offseason, which surrounded every defensive player with a substantially better supporting cast than in recent years.

The added offseason additions bode well for Murphy to have the type of year he needs to improve his market value heading into free agency in 2027.

Odds remain stacked against Myles Murphy to score a massive payday

However, unfortunately for Murphy, the odds are not stacked in his favor.

Teams would hesitate before giving Murphy a $100 million deal. As with Hendrickson in 2021, there will be some who would consider him a one-year wonder, thereby suppressing his open-market value.  

The only way for Myles Murphy to reach a contract on par with Herbig’s is for him to have a Myles Garrett-type season. If Murphy leads the NFL in sacks and pass rush win rate and has a season that puts him in consideration for MVP, then we can revisit this conversation.

Let’s all hope this is exactly what happens, putting the front office in an uncomfortable predicament and making them regret not giving Murphy his 5th-year option. 

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