The Cincinnati Bengals drafted Shamar Stewart with the No. 17 overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. The Minnesota Vikings selected edge rusher Dallas Turner with the No. 17 overall pick in 2024. Now that Turner's rookie season is in the bag, sight unseen, would fans be happy if Stewart performed as well as Turner?
Spoiler alert... no.
Bengals need Shemar Stewart to be better than Dallas Turner and Myles Murphy
In his rookie season, Turner recorded three sacks, three tackles for loss, and 20 tackles. Vikings fans were hoping for better results from their rookie pass rusher after losing Danielle Hunter's 16.5 sacks after the 2023 season.
The Bengals would be in a similar situation to Minnesota if they had more confidence in their 2023 first-round selection. Perhaps the front office would be more open to trading Trey Hendrickson.
In his rookie campaign, Myles Murphy recorded three sacks, three tackles for loss, and 20 tackles. Those match up precisely with Turner's stats. That was not enough for Bengals fans to ponder the question of why the team selected him in the first round. His zero sacks in the 2024 season, in which Pro Football Focus ranked him 134th of 211 defensive ends, did nothing to assuage concerns about whether he was the correct pick.
If Stewart were to have the same rookie season as Turner or Murphy, it would be a letdown for a team that struggled mightily last season on defense.
First, the Bengals are in desperate need of help that will enable them to return to the playoffs after narrowly missing out last season. A critical reason why they missed out was the lack of defense playmakers. Furthermore, there are veterans on the roster who, with the opportunity, could produce those numbers.
Joseph Ossai had five sacks and 46 tackles last year. Rookie Cedric Johnson had one sack and will be looking to add to that career total in 2025.
Let's say Stewart replicated Turner and Murphy's rookie season stats. In that case, what was the point of adding him to a win-now team that needs help today? On the other hand, the offseason drama that came with the drafting of Stewart would be a small price to pay for production on par with George Karlaftis, Micah Parsons, or Azeez Ojulari.
If not…
What does a satisfying rookie season look like for Stewart?
In his rookie season, George Karlaftis notched eight sacks, 49 tackles, eight tackles for loss, and 13 QB hits.
For his part, Parsons recorded 13 sacks, 84 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, and 30 quarterback hits. Those were astronomical numbers for a rookie pass rusher, which earned him NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, first team All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors.
Comparing Stewart to Karlaftis or Parsons might be unfair. However, it would not be absurd to expect him to be on par with a recent second-round pick.
Ojulari was the 50th overall selection of the 2022 draft. He recorded eight sacks, 49 tackles, eight tackles for loss, and 13 quarterback hits in his first year with the Giants.
Hopefully, once the 2025 season is over, fans and Cincinnati will talk about Stewart the way fans in Kansas City, Dallas, and New York discuss Karlaftis, Parsons, and Ojulari, respectively. But that would be too much to expect from the rookie who only recorded 4.5 sacks, 30 tackles, and 12 tackles for loss in a combined three years at Texas A&M.
However, if we compare him to last year's No. 17 overall pick, Turner, or Cincinnati's 2022 first-round selection, Miles Murphy, it would be a massive disappointment with a built-in excuse of not getting a contract done early in the offseason.
At least then, we will discuss Stewart’s inevitable nominations for breakout player in the 2026 season and all the reasons we should hope for progress.
All of this is contingent on Murphy signing his rookie contract, of course. However, just as getting three sacks in the 2025 season is not a guarantee, Stewart signing his first deal is not either.