As the Cincinnati Bengals head into the 2026 NFL season, there is renewed hope that the team can return to the playoffs after a three-year hiatus. Most of that belief comes after an offseason in which the Bengals overhauled their defense, with expectations of going from one of the worst defenses in history to a top-15 unit in just one year.
But after those defensive upgrades, a training camp with a scattering of bad reps, and a preseason that saw Joe Burrow take a few hits, it is the offensive line that is in the spotlight once again.
Starting center Ted Karras and guard Dalton Risner are entering the final year of their contract. Left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. is showing signs of NFL mortality. So we should assume, or at least hope, that the OL gets major attention next offseason.
However, one of the impending free agents we previously argued the Bengals should target may already be out of range for what they’re willing to pay at that position.
Nelson the prize of the 2027 OL free agent market
Bleacher Report’s Kris Knox recently released his Top 10 2027 free agents ahead of the 2026 opener. Sitting at number four for Knox is Indianapolis Colts guard Quenton Nelson.
Nelson is entering the eighth year of his sure-to-be Hall of Fame career. In his eight seasons, he has eight Pro Bowls and six All-Pro selections. However, he and the Colts have not been to the playoffs since the 2020 season.
If they fail to get to the postseason again this year and the Bengals do what we expect them to, Indy may let Nelson test free agency for the first time in his career, and Cincy could sell their recent success to entice him to come down I-74.
Though the Bengals may already be out of the running, as Knox acknowledges, “It's difficult to envision Nelson playing for a different franchise with several quality years likely to come. However, price could become a significant factor for the Colts. Nelson is likely seeking a contract that will top every non-tackle offensive line deal in the NFL.”
If price becomes a significant factor for the Colts, it will likely be an issue for the Bengals’ front office also.
History suggests price tag will scare off the Bengals
Nelson may already be off the market as far as the Bengals are concerned. And he will certainly have many suitors, including those willing to pay him what Cincinnati may not.
Knox puts Nelson’s projected contract value at $109 million over four years for an annual value of $27.25 million. That would make him the 6th-highest-paid offensive lineman in the league. Not guards, but all offensive linemen.
The Bengals are unlikely to be willing to pay a guard that much. Just as unlikely as they are to trade away a first-round pick for a 28-year-old defensive tackle in hopes of bringing their defense to respectability. So there's that.
This season, the Bengals are paying Dalton Risner $3.1 million and Dylan Fairchild $1.6 million to start at guard. Going to $27 million would be a steep climb.
Coincidentally, they paid Alex Cappa $27 million in total, the most the team has paid a guard. He signed a four-year, $35 million contract in 2022, but Cincinnati released him ahead of his final year.
Cost could also be a factor in not reaching out to a veteran like Cam Robinson to compete for the swing-tackle role.
Banking on the draft is cheaper, less sure
The Bengals could absolutely find two starters in the first and second rounds of the 2027 NFL Draft if they don’t re-up Risner and Karras. But should we trust them to select the right guys?
The C-suite didn’t trust itself to find a suitable defensive lineman, which is why they traded the tenth-overall pick to the New York Giants for Dexter Lawrence. Fortunately, Cashius Howell looks like a steal.
Furthermore, if Stripe Hype’s own Gerard Angelo Samillano is correct, the front office has found its scouting footing in recent drafts after finding immediate starters in the first and third rounds in Amarius Mims and Dylan Fairchild, respectively.
Nevertheless, drafting suitable talent along the offensive line, or lack thereof, is why we suggested trading away next year’s first-round pick for an established starter. Making a significant trade for a veteran, picking up a priority free agent, and finding a potential starter in the second round to overhaul the offensive line would be a way to go.
However, Nelson, as a free-agent option, looks more like an expensive pipe dream ready to die on the vine, given this organization’s unwillingness to pay guards top-of-the-market value.
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