Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is already a living legend with a legitimate Hall of Fame trajectory. Through six NFL seasons, Chase has thrived with or without Joe Burrow in the lineup, amassing 6,837 yards on 520 receptions and 54 touchdowns.
That TD total is quite impressive considering that Chase not only routinely draws double teams/bracket coverage, but shares the field with an elite red zone weapon in Tee Higgins.
If the Bengals' defense improves as much as expected, and Burrow has his best season to date, a record-setting 2026 campaign is well within Chase's grasp.
In fact, Chase has now gone on the record to say what his personal goal is: To break Randy Moss' single-season record of 23 receiving TDs, via an NFL Network interview with Cameron Wolfe from Bengals training camp.
So can Ja'Marr get it done? Nothing seems impossible for who I and many others believe to be the league's genuine WR1.
Let's see if we can map out a realistic path to his chase for history, using a rather hilarious but perhaps realistic bold predictions article from a while back. Also read Stripe Hype's very own list of bold predictions from new writer Brandon Johnson.
Why a hot start is very much in play for Ja'Marr and Joe Burrow
We're talking weather and on-field production here. SB Nation's Jarrett Bailey dropped an outlandish predictions piece just before training camp. It's a 61-item list of reasonable, piping-hot, and comically-specific takes (final score projections, etc.).
A couple of Bailey's bold forecasts include Joe Burrow throwing five TD passes against the Bucs and Dolphins in Weeks 1 and 5 respectively. Bailey specifies that Chase will haul in two of those season-opening scores.
Why not project that forward to the pre-bye road trip to Miami, too, because let's face it, does first-round rookie Chris Johnson or anyone in the Dolphins secondary have a prayer of covering Chase? Never mind Miami's suspect safety play when they try to double team him.
Let's say Chase, on the high end, has five TDs in those two contests alone. In between those Weeks 1 and 5 games are road trips to Houston and Pittsburgh, plus a home game against the Jaguars. The middle of the field should be a lot more accessible without an All-Pro linebacker in Devin Lloyd at the heart of Jacksonville's defense. Plus, Travis Hunter has a lot to prove to put it kindly.
Did the Jags get much better on defense, if at all? Or did I miss something? Didn't the mostly Burrow-less Bengals hang 31 on their heads in Week 2 last year? I seem to remember Ja'Marr having 14 receptions for 165 yards and a TD. Most or all of those grabs came from Jake Browning.
That Texans matchup for Chase against ex-LSU teammate Derek Stingley Jr. will be an absolute barn burner. What's interesting is that Houston likes to just run basic coverages, trusting that their Will Anderson-led pass rush and Stingley-spearheaded defensive backfield will just stymie an opposing offense.
Not sure that's going to fly against the elite trio of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins, especially with Joe Shiesty apparently leveling up as a pure pocket passer. But Texans coach DeMeco Ryans is welcome to try those vanilla schemes.
Last but not least, the AFC North rival Steelers are an aging, declining team with an aging, declining quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. Maybe A-Rod finds some magic via his Mike McCarthy reunion, but the new head coach can't fix that aging, declining defense.
Notice a theme there?
One last note on Bailey's piece: He predicts a 12-5 record for the Bengals and Burrow to throw 52 TD passes. We'll disregard the fact that he says the Dallas Cowboys will beat us in the Super Bowl.
So let's give Chase a cool eight TDs through five games. That puts him on pace for 27 if he plays in 17 games and 26 if he plays in 16 like Moss did (someone is gonna throw that caveat out, aren't they?).
A weak schedule and midseason Madrid mania should elevate the offense
When Ja'Marr Chase won the Triple Crown in 2024, he caught 17 of Burrow's 43 TDs, good for a 39.5% clip. He'd have to nab at least 46% of Burrow's predicted 52 TDs in 2026 to break Moss' record.
That isn't too far of a leap to make. Perhaps the most anticipated road trip of the season is to Madrid for Week 9's international duel against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Bengals' defense should set up the offense with plenty of favorable field position, provided Lawrence and the run defense can shut down Bijan Robinson. Other than Drake London, Atlanta doesn't have many capable wide receivers. Oh, and the Falcons will choose between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. as their starting QB.
None if this bodes well for Atlanta. That organization is lost at sea. Plus, 2025 first-round picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. have suffered major setbacks. Walker is out for the year with a torn ACL, while Pearce is mired in legal issues and faces a likely suspension.
In other words, the Bengals could go absolutely bananas in Madrid. We're talking the potential for a 50-burger, y'all.
And beyond that exotic one-off, Cincinnati faces the lowly Titans in Week 8, the Steelers at home in Week 10, and heads to Washington for a Week 11 Monday Night Football showcase against the Commanders.
That Commies defense is markedly improved on the front seven with Leo Chenal, Sonny Styles, K'Lavon Chasson, and Odafe Oweh. I have major doubts about their cornerback corps, though.
When the Bengals come back to Paycor Stadium to square off with the Saints in Week 12, too, I'm not exactly bullish on Kool-Aid McKinstry or Quincy Riley marking Chase man-to-man.
Let's say Chase has three TDs in Madrid to make up for none at Baltimore in Week 7, and averages one per game otherwise. That'd put him up to 15 TDs through Week 12.
Cincinnati's history of late-season peaks bodes well for Chase’s record
Now we're into the December part of the schedule, starting with a Week 14 road trip to Cleveland against the Myles Garrett-less Browns. Although Jared Verse is a fine replacement for Garrett, all the Browns have on the back end to stop Ja'Marr Chase is Denzel Ward.
It's sort of a pick your poison situation for the Bengals' bottom-feeding intrastate adversary. Regardless of how difficult this typically challenging matchup is, though, the rest of the slate sets up for an epic finish.
The Bengals have a chance to ruin Taylor Swift's birthday when they host the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15. From there on in, it's two away games at Carolina and Indianapolis before two at home in the division against the Ravens and Browns.
Perhaps the latter two foes' new coaching staffs will give them a novelty edge on the Bengals in their first go-rounds. However, if Cincinnati is contending as much as usual, and Burrow and Chase are peaking like they historically do in December and January, they should be able to make a legitimate push for Chase to get to that 24-touchdown mark.
As I prepare for my graceful exit, consider the following data for Chase and Burrow. Tell me I'm off my rocker for thinking a single-season record is 100% on the table in 2026.
Joe Burrow stats in Games 13+ (splits)
- 14-4 record
- 302.5 passing yards per game
- 72.9% completion rate (7.9 YPA)
- 47 TDs, 13 INTs, and a 110.6 passer rating
Ja'Marr Chase stats in Games 13+ (splits)
- 17-6 record
- 160 receptions, 2,001 yards, 15 TDs
- Per game: 87 yards, .65 TDs
So if we extrapolate .65 multiplied by six remaining games, that'd boost Chase's TD total to only 19. Four short of tying Moss' mark, five shy of breaking it. But we have some serious context to consider here, hence leading with win-loss records.
Look at how many games Chase has had to play in those high-stakes months without Burrow, never mind some of the action Higgins has missed to make matters even more difficult.
If the Bengals can win at that clip when either Chase or Burrow are on the field, and Chase can still produce at such an elite level without Joe Brrr all the time, imagine the possibilities of a full 17 games with them. And where they could be by season's end.
You get Burrow, Chase, and Higgins on the field at the same time, with the best defense backing them since they last made the playoffs, in December and January? Forget about it. Sky's the limit. Super Bowl is in view. Ja'Marr's chase for history is fully on.
Round up Burrow's 2.6 TD average per game to three, assuming he does indeed have his best season yet, and factor in Chase's own continually upward trajectory, and I'm fairly certain Ja'Marr will be landing darn close to Randy territory, if not eclipsing him.
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