Unfortunately, for the Cincinnati Bengals, quarterback Dante Moore's decision to return to Oregon will affect their draft plans.
With most prognosticators predicting that Moore would have landed with the Jets at the number two overall pick, that selection will now likely become a player whom the Bengals might have had their eye on at 10 overall.
And that’s just the beginning, because it is more likely that the top two defensive players they are targeting now will be off the board.
Bengals may draft one pick too late
It is no secret that the Bengals are eyeing defensive talent in this year's NFL draft. But once again, just like we've seen so many times in years past, the Bengals might be one pick away from who they truly desire.
Our colleague Nicolas Rome at Saturday Blitz recently updated their first round mock draft after Moore decided to return to Oregon. Rome has the New York Jets selecting a popular pick for the Bengals and Ohio State linebacker Arvelle Reese.
But it is not only Reese who is flying off the board in front of Cincinnati’s spot. Reuben Bain Jr, Caleb, Downs, Peter Woods, and Keldrick Falk are all off the board when the Bengals pick in this mock draft.
David Bailey becomes the realistic Bengals draft outcome
Saturday Blitz has the Bengals landing Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey in this particular exercise.
The draft experts at Tankathon also share a similar outcome after updating their most recent mock draft.
They too have Arvell Reese going second overall to the Jets, with Reuben Bain Jr. and Caleb Downs off the board at three and seven, respectively.
Tankathon also has the Bengals selecting David Bailey with the 10th overall pick.
Obviously, Bailey would not be a bad selection at 10 overall. He led the nation in sacks this year, delivering the production fans want to see, and the defense needs to have a positive, immediate impact in 2026.
Let’s hope his arms are long enough on his 6’3” frame for NFL GMs to see him as a legit pass rusher in the league.
Bailey finished his final year with 14.5 sacks, 19.5 tackles for loss, 52 tackles, and three forced fumbles while earning All-American honors.
Nevertheless, we know that, as of today, Bengals fans have their eyes set on a more local prospect in Ohio State safety Caleb Downs.
Heartbreak for Caleb Downs-to-Bengals hopefuls
Saturday blitz and Tankathon both have the Washington Commanders selecting Downs with the seventh overall pick, which would break Bengals fans’ hearts.
Going within the top 10 for a safety prospect will catch some NFL commentators by surprise. However, Downs appears to be that good of a prospect to the point where he can overcome positional value in the draft.
After all, Pro Football Focus has him ranked as their number one overall prospect.
Nevertheless, if you were one of the Bengals fans, hoping to land Reese, Bain, Downs, or Peter Woods, the NFL draft has just become a lot riskier a proposition.
Slim scenario where Bengals still land their top target
There is always a chance that a team gets desperate and moves up to grab a quarterback in Ty Simpson or Trinidad Chambless. But that seems unlikely given where we sit today.
So while Moore's decision to go back to Oregon, ideally, would not affect the Bengals, the QB's decision to return could render the decision of whom to take with the 10th overall pick that much more difficult, as at least one more defensive star will likely be off the board before they make their selection.
On the other hand, at least we have a good idea of which team the Bengals would need to trade up ahead of if they wanted to be aggressive and go after the Ohio State superstar, Downs.
However, we would strongly advise you not to hold your breath waiting for that to happen.