Does Kevin Stefanski's exit force Bengals to reevaluate Zac Taylor?

When the Cincinnati Bengals face the Cleveland Browns this afternoon, there will be just as much attention paid to the sidelines as there is to the action in between the lines, if not more. 

The Bengals have already made up their minds about the future of head coach Zac Taylor, as Mike Brown announced on Black Monday that Taylor would stay put. And as history has shown with the organization, there is reason to believe that his chances of coaching through the 2027 season are more likely than not. 

However, with ESPN's Adam Schefter breaking the news that Kevin Stefanski is no longer the Browns' head coach, should that give the Bengals pause about sticking with Taylor for the next year or two? 

Kevin Stefanski’s firing shouldn’t define Cincinnati’s thinking, but prompt reflection

Please, do not get it twisted. We are not mistaking Cleveland as an arbiter of success. And no, the Bengals should not go after Stefanski, though a coach-for-coach trade between in-state division rivals would be quite newsworthy.

Nor should the Cleveland Browns be the paradigm under which Cincinnati’s front office operates.

Nevertheless, the Bengals brass might want to ask themselves how much better Taylor is as a head coach than Stefanski? 

And while there has been as much talk surrounding both coaches, one franchise is moving on while the other is proving more stable, to put it nicely.

Different paths to head coach, similar levels of opportunity

Taylor and Stefanski took different roads from offensive coordinator to head coach.

The 2015 Miami Dolphins’ coaching staff illustrates the incestuous nature of hiring practices when NFL teams are only willing to swim in such small ponds. In that season, Taylor took over as offensive coordinator after the dismissal of future/former Bengals OC, Bill Lazor.

Miami’s offense actually got worse under Taylor, while the Dolphins were able to accumulate a few wins under interim head coach Dan Campbell. 

Also on that coaching staff was interim defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who took over for the fired Kevin Coyle, who eventually became the Bengals' defensive backs coach.

Taylor went on to become the WR and then QB coach under Sean McVay with the Rams. However, he was never close to calling plays where the hierarchy was McVay, Aaron Kromer (OL and run game coordinator), and Shane Waldron (passing game coordinator).  

Meanwhile, after spending 12 years as an assistant, Stefanski got his first opportunity as offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings in 2019 and turned it into the head coaching job in Cleveland in 2020. 

Regular-season results show Stefanski and Taylor too close for comfort

No matter their different paths to becoming head coaches, Stefanski and Taylor have very similar regular-season winning percentages. With records of 44-56 and 52-62, they boast .440 and .457, winning percentages, respectively.

For context, the other AFC North head coaches, John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, have winning percentages of .616 and .627, respectively. And, as has been heavily written and discussed, the Ravens and Steelers head coaches are both on the proverbial hot seat.

Here is a list of other notable, contemporary head coaches with higher winning percentages than Stefanski and Taylor. 

• Nick Sirianni (.702)

• Sean McDermott (.660)

• Matt LaFleur (.659)

• Mike Tomlin (.627)

• Kevin O’Connell (.627)

• DeMeco Ryans (.620)

• John Harbaugh (.616)

• Sean McVay (.615)

• Mike Vrabel (.583)

• Mike Zimmer (.562)

• Dan Campbell (.547)

• Matt Nagy (.523)

• Mike McDaniel (.522)

• Marvin Lewis (.518)

• Dan Quinn (.500)

With Stefanski out, and Harbaugh teetering after Sunday’s loss to Tomlin, the Bengals’ choice to remain steadfast with Taylor comes more into question.

That is, until you consider postseason success.

Playoff performance is Zac Taylor’s strongest defense

When you look at the postseason, there is no question that Taylor has the edge “when it counts,” as football experts claim this time of year. 

Taylor led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in the 2021 season and a second consecutive AFC Championship Game in the 2022 campaign. Stefanski, like several other head coaches with winning percentages, can’t claim Taylor’s postseason resume.  

Taylor has a .714 winning percentage in the playoffs versus Stefanski’s .333. Amazingly, Taylor has the seventh-best playoff winning percentage of all-time. He has the best postseason winning percentage among the aforementioned coaches, despite owning a worse regular-season winning percentage.  

However, Stefanski and Taylor have led their Ohio teams to the same total number of postseason appearances: 2. Stefanski has done it twice in six seasons, whereas Taylor has had seven bites at that particular apple. 

If championships are the goal, then Taylor gives the Bengals a better chance of achieving it than Stefanski. That is, if you go by postseason success alone.

However, if the only way to advance is to get to the playoffs, Stefanski and Taylor are tied, and Cincinnati should at least reconsider and go in another direction based on that metric. 

The FAFO Metric

While it remains to be determined how long a runway Taylor’s two playoff appearances will ultimately grant him, they remain the principal reasons Taylor continues as head coach, with little consideration to the contrary from the front office. 

Like with so many other things these days, the difference between Stefanski and Taylor comes down to the “FAFO” meme. 

Taylor is likely to stay because he has more playoff success. He made it further in the postseason than Stefanski, even though they each have only two appearances in their tenures with their respective clubs.

The further a coach makes it in the playoffs, the longer he has to “mess around” in non-playoff seasons.

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