Much of the fanfare surrounding Sunday's showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans will inevitably focus on quarterback play. Questions linger about Joe Burrow's health and C.J. Stroud's viability as a franchise guy, fair or not to the latter.
But Week 2's potential AFC Championship Game preview — did I stutter? — may be more about the feature backs and the rushing attacks spearheaded by Chase Brown and David Montgomery.
If the Bengals' run blocking unit can hold the same form they've shown since last season, and their tight ends keep doing the dirty work well, they could dictate the terms all afternoon in Houston.
Texans' radical approach to stop the run could give Brown and the Bengals a big edge on the ground
It's quite remarkable sometimes how one comparison of one stat can tell such a massive story and possibly project with incredible precision how teams might match up, even this early in the season.
Thanks to the NFL-housed Next Gen Stats, we have data on how often running backs faced stacked boxes in Week 1. Against the Bucs, Chase Brown was beset by eight or more Tampa Bay defenders in the box on 50% of his carries. He gutted out 56 yards and a TD on 16 totes.
Meanwhile, in stark contrast, the Texans' vaunted defense got gashed by Josh Allen's Bills, and practically dared Buffalo tailback James Cook to run right at them. Cook faced 8+ defenders in the box on just one of his 13 carries.
Houston's strategy to play coverage against Allen didn't go so well, as he lit them up for 334 yards through the air and four total TDs.
If the Texans do indeed take that approach again versus the Bengals — and they figure to, since passing is still Cincinnati's strength thanks to Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Mike Gesicki et al. — that could spell a big day for Brown.
The Bengals barely had to defend the run versus Tampa Bay. Other than some excellent scrambles from Baker Mayfield, they held their own overall thanks to a newly stout defensive line led by Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe.
Tampa Bay's o-line is no slouch. The Texans don't have a great group up front. Whether they stack the box often or not, David Montgomery will probably find running room hard to come by. He managed only 60 yards on 20 carries in Week 1.
If Cincinnati can execute the vision of playing keep-away with more under center runs and shorten the game, that'll put Montgomery, Stroud, and the Texans offense under serious pressure to perform in front of the home fans. To avoid a 0-2 start.
Things could get weird in H-Town real quick, especially if Chase Brown goes off. The current setup would suggest he's about to tear it up at NRG Stadium. We'll all find out together soon enough.
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