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Jaguars, Bills, Chiefs make deadline moves, yet cutting-edge model favors Bengals in AFC

The Cincinnati Bengals didn't make a move at the trade deadline.
ByDylan Oakley
Nov 8, 2026; Madrid, ESP;  Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) celebrates with guard Dalton Risner (66) after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.  Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Nov 8, 2026; Madrid, ESP; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) celebrates with guard Dalton Risner (66) after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cincinnati Bengals had a very disappointing trade deadline. They had a trade agreed for Eagles edge rusher Arnold Ebiketie, but backed out after a tweet uncovered that they would have lost a compensatory third-round pick with the deal.

After that, the Bengals didn't make any moves, which was a big disappointment, considering there are still some major holes on defense at safety and linebacker, and the fact that the running game has been so disappointing on offense too.

What made it worse was that rivals in the AFC didn't stay quiet. The Jacksonville Jaguars traded for former Bengal Jessie Bates, as well as Eagles defensive tackle Jordan Davis, and Saints tackle Davon Godchaux.

The Jags weren't the only active team either, as the Buffalo Bills signed Amani Hooker from the Titans, and the Kansas City Chiefs traded for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs. It means the Bengals left the deadline in a weaker position than any of their rivals in the conference, which is a bit of a worry.

Supercomputer backs Bengals despite quiet deadline

The Opta supercomputer simulations have favoured the Bengals in the AFC all season so far, and you would think after the deadline that the AFC rivals would have taken over, considering the lack of additions from Cincinnati; however, that isn't the case.

In the latest simulation, the supercomputer has the Bengals winning the AFC, as it gives them a 21.83% chance at the conference, compared to the Jaguars in second (17.50%), the Broncos in third (13.40%), the Bills in fourth (12.90%), and the Chiefs in fifth (9.50%).

Perhaps even more staggeringly, the supercomputer predicts that the Bengals have an 11.92% chance at winning the Superbowl this season, which, is second in the entire NFL, with only the San Francisco 49ers ranked higher at 12.15%.

The reason behind this is simple; it's all based around the schedule. The Bengals' three toughest remaining games are the Steelers at the weekend, the Chiefs in Week 14, and potentially the Ravens in Week 17, with Lamar maybe back from injury.

Whereas the Jags have to face the Bears, Steelers and Texans; The Bills have to face the Chiefs, Bears, Packers, Patriots and Broncos; And Kansas City still face the Bengals, Bills, Patriots, Rams and 49ers.

It feels almost nailed on that the Bengals will at least get to the playoffs, which is perhaps why the supercomputer ranks them so highly compared to their rivals. However, the antics at the trade deadline is a cause for concern and could come back to bite Cincy in the playoffs.

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