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Joe Burrow’s dreadful luck in key area hints at Bengals' huge upside

Not only is Joey B due for a healthy season, but also...this.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) looks for hands to shake after the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 18 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium in Downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. The Browns kicked a last second field goal to win 20-18.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) looks for hands to shake after the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 18 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium in Downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. The Browns kicked a last second field goal to win 20-18. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Bengals had a whole lot go wrong last season, including a turf toe injury for superstar quarterback Joe Burrow that was so severe, it was one of a fraction of such cases that required surgery.

Burrow blew past the conventional recovery timeline to return to the field far sooner than anyone expected. Although it wasn't enough to rally the Bengals into the playoffs, he did post a stellar 100.7 passer rating for the year, and the 6-11 disaster netted Cincinnati the 10th overall pick, which was flipped to the Giants in the Dexter Lawrence trade.

Some advanced stats about Burrow's latest greatness weave a compelling narrative that suggests Joe Shiesty could be in for a truly monster 2026 season.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow's rotten interception luck due for a reversal in 2026

PFF's Mark Chichester went digging into the quarterbacks who had the best and worst luck on interceptions last season. In other words, how often did QBs commit turnover-worthy plays, and how often did defenses capitalize on them? It also factors in how often QBs were intercepted on non-turnover worthy plays.

Wouldn't you know it, among the five INTs Joe Burrow threw during his injury-shortened 2025 campaign, he only actually recorded two turnover-worthy plays.

By PFF's net luck metric, Burrow was the sixth-unluckiest QB in the league behind Geno Smith, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, his teammate Joe Flacco, and Bryce Young.

This underscores just how minimal the margin for error was for the Bengals — and it's really been a larger issue throughout the past three years of playoff-free football.

Cincinnati's abysmal defense has forced Burrow to basically score at will when he's in the lineup. It puts the Bengals in a lot of obvious passing situations, leaving their most valuable player exposed to brutal punishment.

The good news? Thanks to the aforementioned Lawrence trade and many other additions, the defense should be much-improved in 2026. Burrow is beyond overdue for a healthy season — and evidently, his cruel breaks on interceptions are bound to go his way this year.

Plus, the Bengals return every single starter on offense from last year's unit. It happens to be, by far, the best offensive line Burrow has ever played behind. No more dragging backups and practice squad-caliber blockers deep into the postseason for JOEY FRANCHISE, BAY-BEE!!

Sheesh. Got a little carried away there. The latest Burrow revenge season will be here before we know it, and based on this data, it's reasonable to believe rest of the NFL is not ready for what's coming.

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