It wasn’t that long ago when the Bengals were seen as the cream of the crop in the AFC North. Back-to-back first-place finishes in 2021 and 2022 seemed to indicate that the Bengals would run the division for the foreseeable future with Joe Burrow under center. But now, the Bengals have finished third or worse for three consecutive seasons in the AFC North.
But heading into the 2026 season, there is some healthy optimism about what the Bengals could be this year. And a big reason for the new hope is the improvement of the defense, especially after the trade of Dexter Lawrence. They finally have a superstar defensive tackle who can impact the pass as well as the run. He is a defensive building block who should make everyone around him better.
While there is still a lot of work to be done on that side of the ball, they finally have enough talent to compete at the top of the division. But could they actually win the AFC North for the first time since 2022? Well, it depends on who you ask.
Bengals a strong value bet to take back AFC North
There is no doubt that the 2026 offseason has been a productive one for the Bengals. They were highly aggressive in free agency and made a franchise-altering trade with the acquisition of Lawrence. But is that enough to make them legit contenders in the AFC?
In a recent article by ESPN, their betting experts wrote about 10 of the best bets currently on the board going into June. One of the most eye-catching bets they named was the Bengals to win the AFC North, which is shocking considering how big a favorite the Ravens are in the division.
“Keeping quarterback Joe Burrow healthy will be key to Cincy's success, but providing the franchise with a competent defense (that the Bengals invested in this offseason) offers this squad some breathing room. The offensive continuity figures to improve Cincinnati's odds of achieving double-digit wins and potentially edging out Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Both rival contenders feature QBs with durability issues as well as regime shifts, making this a long shot worth taking”
The Bengals have one of the NFL’s best offenses and a defense that added several quality defenders, including the likes of Bryan Cook, Boye Mafe, and Jonathan Allen. The floor is significantly higher for that unit, and if players like Shemar Stewart or Demetrius Knight can improve in Year 2, this could be a better-than-average group.
But the truth is that the Bengals can only win the division if Burrow stays healthy. Since 2021, the Bengals are 41-26 with Burrow under center. That gives them a winning percentage of 61.2%, which roughly translates to a 10-7 season. If Burrow can stay healthy for all 17 games, it seems very likely that the Bengals will win double-digit games again this season.
But Burrow has missed 16 games over the last three seasons and has been less-than-100 percent in several others. His health will be the determining factor in the Bengals winning the AFC North. ESPN isn’t wrong to highlight the Bengals as a strong underdog pick in the AFC North, given how good this team can be when their quarterback is healthy.
The Steelers will be competitive, as always. And the Ravens are in a similar situation to the Bengals regarding Lamar Jackson's health. But this is the Bengals’ division to win. If the defense can raise the floor at all and Burrow can stay healthy for 15+ games, don’t be surprised if this is the year Cincinnati gets back on track and hosts a home playoff game once again. Anything but a playoff berth would be a massive disappointment for the Bengals in 2026.
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