Mike Tomlin's absence has Bengals poised to pounce as road favorites in Pittsburgh

The Cincinnati Bengals are heading into trap game territory in Week 3 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, unlike years past, Cincinnati fans should not be dreading this trip to the Steel City for the first AFC North duel of the new season.

Mike Tomlin is no longer walking through that door at Steelers HQ. Instead, a cheap nostalgia bait reunion between Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers has Pittsburgh toothless and reeling after Week 2's 20-3 loss at New England. Meanwhile, the new-look Bengals just whacked the Texans 20-6 in Houston.

The closer you look at this game, the more hilarious it is that the spread is only 3.5 points in Cincinnati's favor at DraftKings as of this writing.

Tomlin's trademark grit is missing from this iteration of the Steelers

Mike Tomlin had a habit of winning with subpar quarterback play. Whether it was the animated corpse of Ben Roethlisberger toward the end of his career, Duck Hodges, Mason Rudolph, or any number of oddball field generals, Tomlin found a way far more often than not.

Excluding Tomlin's 2-3 straight up and against the spread records as a home underdog last season, his record in that scenario was 21-7-3 ATS, and 18-15 SU, per TeamRankings.com.

It was truly uncanny. For a time during my childhood, it felt like 16 different things had to go wrong on any given Sunday for the Steelers to even be worried of losing. If Big Ben took a terrible sack to put Pittsburgh in 3rd and forever, I would just sit there helpless and say, "About a 50-50 shot he gets this."

I might feel that way if we were talking about prime Tomlin paired with prime Rodgers in Week 3. But that ain't what this is.

Bengals' first AFC North matchup couldn't have arrived at a better time

You can't really call any of Mike McCarthy's teams "gritty." Whether it was in Green Bay where he only won a single Super Bowl with Rodgers, or in Dallas, McCarthy's teams are often undisciplined and commit stupid penalties. The data backs this up, but let's leave that be.

I've mentioned how the Bengals' easy schedule in 2026 really works in their favor. They made it through a tough two-game gauntlet against division favorites in the Bucs and Texans. Week 3 is where Easy Street begins.

But again, Tomlin's home dog hex is no longer in play. The fact that the Bengals have to go on the road will help them avoid any "trap game" scenarios. Plus, it's the first divisional game, so there's always a little extra edge and motivation that comes with that.

If Cincinnati's defense was able to harass quite mobile QBs like Baker Mayfield and C.J. Stroud, imagine what this defensive line might do to a suspect Pittsburgh pass blocking unit and a less-nimble, quadragenarian version of Rodgers who doesn't want to get hit and is averaging 5.2 yards per pass attempt through two games this season.

Oddsmakers know better than to doubt Joe Burrow in this spot

Let's say the Steelers *had* played better in the first couple games, the lingering Mike Tomlin home dog hex was still taken at face value, and Pittsburgh didn't look like the worst 1-1 team in NFL history to this point. Just follow the premise with me here.

To me, making the Bengals only a 3.5-point favorite is basically analogous to making them an underdog. This spread should be at least 6.5 points. Probably more.

Therefore, it's almost like the oddsmakers are making the Bengals a road underdog. And look at what Joe Burrow does in such situations.

I'm being facetious about all of this a bit, but the principle of my point still stands. Burrow is off to the best start of his career, and with such a phenomenal defense backing him, deserves far more respect.

Oh well. Let the sportsbooks keep sleeping on just how dominant this Bengals team is, and let them think the Steelers will be some tough, grueling test like the Tomlin teams of yesteryear were.

Hasn't taken long to dismantle basically every inaccurate national media talking point from before the season. I figure the bookies will catch up to how good Cincinnati is this season soon enough.

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