The Cincinnati Bengals would be in the playoffs if the season ended this very instant. Unfortunately, the season does not end right now and there are three more regular season games that the Bengals have on their schedule.
Due to the Bengals' slow start to the season, they've now put themselves in a position where they have to win out in order to make the playoffs. Sure, one loss wouldn't completely take them out of it, but considering their final three opponents are against AFC teams, that will cost them in the playoff tiebreaker scenarios.
What are the Bengals playoff odds if they win in Week 16?
According to The New York Times, should the Bengals knock off the struggling Steelers on Saturday afternoon, their playoff odds increase to 57%. From there, even if they lost to the Chiefs in Week 17 but beat the Browns in Week 18, they'd still be sitting with a 71% chance to get into the dance. Obviously, losing to the Browns would tank that percentage, as it'd be down to a 10% chance.
For now, however, we're just focusing on this week and if the Bengals beat the Steelers and secure their first divisional win of 2023, they'd have respectable odds to make the playoffs for a third straight year.
What are the Bengals playoff odds if they lose in Week 16?
If the Bengals lose to Pittsburgh and drop to 0-5 in the division, they'd be sitting with a mere 14% chance of making the postseason, per The New York Times. A victory against the Chiefs the following week would bump those odds to 44% and a win against the Browns would take those odds to 69% so a loss isn't the end-all-be-all for the Bengals' playoff chances.
I'm sure it won't be a shock, however, if I tell you that two more losses would bring the Bengals' playoff chances down to 6%. If they lose out, they'll have less than a 1% chance of getting in, which isn't surprising, considering they'd have nine conference losses.
As mentioned above, winning out nearly guarantees the Bengals a playoff spot. They'd be sitting with 99% odds to get in. One loss could throw a wrench in those plans, so the Bengals need to ensure they win out just to be safe.