This might be the most anticipated matchup of the divisional round, mostly because we missed out on it in Week 17. The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals looked ready to put on an offensive show on Monday Night Football before Damar Hamlin’s life became the only priority. Now, Hamlin has his health and the two teams are up in Buffalo, the venue has changed, but not much else.
Except the offensive line for Cincinnati has become a massive question mark. There was slim hope that Jonah Williams and Alex Cappa would both play, but Adam Schefter has ripped that away.
Only, the offensive line was a problem in Cincy last postseason and Joe Burrow did not care. Can Joey Brrr carry his team again? Before we get into backing him and building our same game parlay, let’s take a look at the odds for this matchup:
Joe Burrow will need to be great for the Bengals to win, and in big games, he typically is, but this might not be the offensive explosion we were starting to see a few weeks back. I’ve put together a four-leg one game parlay using the BETMGM Sportsbook that pays out +525. That means a $25 bet pays out $156.25.
Best same game parlay picks for Bengals vs. Bills
- Total Points Under 50.5
- Bengals +10.5 vs. Bills
- Josh Allen 35+ Pass Attempts
- Joe Burrow 2+ Passing Touchdowns
Total Points Under 50.5
I’m on the under in this game and that’s my primary play. I saw a lot of reasons to be worried about both offensives last week and I expect them to carry over. Josh Allen threw two interceptions and lost a fumble for a defensive touchdown against Miami, who’s defense isn’t as good as Cincinnati’s. On the other side, the Bengals just won’t be able to block. The Bills don’t have Von Miller anymore, so there isn’t one pass rusher that will dominate the game, but they have waves of young talented edge players that will pressure Burrow all day.
Bengals +10.5 vs. Bills
If you made me pick a winner in this game, I’d tell you that I don’t want to, but ultimately I’d side with Buffalo. The offensive line injuries won’t phase Joe Burrow, at least not publicly, but I’m worried about them. Though I feel great that Burrow and the Bengals are too good to get beaten by more than a touchdown in the postseason. I can’t imagine them letting that happen, so I’ll give myself some cushion with the +10.5.
Josh Allen 35+ Pass Attempts
I just started reading the book, “It’s Better to be Feared” by Seth Wickersham about the Patriots dynasty. I know it’s an old anecdote, but Wickersham writes about how Bill Belichick used a similar game plan to beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXV when he was the DC for the Giants, and the greatest show on turf in his first Super Bowl with New England. He believed that in the biggest game, passing teams will pass, even if you give them the run. Lou Anarumo did this to Patrick Mahomes in the second half of the AFC Championship game last season when he continually dropped eight guys into coverage, but KC would not run the ball. Every once in a while Allen will use his legs, but Allen had 39 pass attempts last week, and I think he’ll hang around 40again on Sunday.
Joe Burrow 2+ Passing Touchdowns
Like I said, passing teams are going to pass. Burrow threw it 32 times last week against Baltimore and finished with just one touchdown, but the Ravens defense is substantially better than the Bills at this point in the season. The Bills allowed Skylar Thompson to throw for 220 yards and a touchdown last week, Joey B should have 300 and two TDs if the line can hold up. That’s the big if that the Bengals season is riding on… again.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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