Bengals vs. Browns prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Week 1

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals begin their quest for another AFC title game appearance on Sunday, Sept. 10 against a division rival in the Cleveland Browns. 

Cleveland missed the playoffs in the 2022 season, but the team is hoping to compete for a division title with a full season of Deshaun Watson under center. Watson didn’t play great in 2022, but it’s possible he needed to shake off the rust after sitting out nearly two seasons. 

In Cincinnati, Burrow’s calf injury that he suffered in training camp has been the talk of the town, but he seems to be on track for Week 1. With a loaded offense featuring Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals should once again be one of the NFL’s best teams. 

In fact, they’re in the top 10 in the league in the latest Super Bowl odds, sitting at +1100.

For Week 1, BetSided’s NFL Analyst Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game – and the other 15 matchups on the slate – to help bettors decide how to wager on Sunday. 

No matter how you plan on wagering on this AFC North matchup, you can come out a winner at DraftKings Sportsbook. New users that sign up with the link below and wager $5 on any game in Week 1 – including this one – will receive $200 in bonus bets!

Let’s dive into the odds and I’ll share my best bet for this Week 1 showdown:

Bengals vs. Browns odds, spread and total

Bengals vs. Browns betting trends

• The Bengals went 13-6 against the spread last season (including playoffs).
• The Browns went 8-9 against the spread last season.
• The Bengals were 5-2 ATS as road favorites last season (including playoffs).
• The Browns went 2-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 2022 campaign.
• The UNDER was 11-7-1 in the Bengals’ games last season (including playoffs).
• The OVER was 8-8-1 in the Browns’ 17 games last season.

Bengals vs. Browns how to watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10
• Game Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Cleveland Browns Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Cincinnati Bengals Record: 0-0
• Cleveland Browns Record: 0-0 

Bengals vs. Browns injury report

Cincinnati Bengals injury report

• Joe Burrow (questionable, calf)
• Trayveon Williams (questionable, ankle)
• Joseph Ossai (doubtful, ankle)
• La’el Collins (PUP, knee)
• Cody Ford (questionable, concussion)

Cleveland Browns injury report

• Denzel Ward (questionable, concussion)
• Alex Wright (questionable, knee)
• Grant Delpit (questionable, arm)
• Greg Newsome II (questionable, groin)
• Jack Conklin (questionable, concussion)
• Myles Garrett (questionable, foot)

Bengals vs. Browns key players to watch

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow: Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he’s coming off a calf injury that he suffered during training camp. While he should be good to go in this game, he struggled in Week 1 of the 2022 season without any work in the preseason, tossing four picks in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Cincinnati’s safeties: The Bengals have two new starting safeties in Dax Hill and Nick Scott after letting Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates go this offseason. Hill – a former first-round pick – played in the 2022 season, but this will be an interesting position to watch as the 2023 season progresses.

Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson: After throwing just seven touchdowns and five picks in six games last season, Watson is looking to redeem himself in 2023. The Browns need him to play at an All-Pro level to compete for a Super Bowl. This is a great Week 1 test to see where he stacks up with Burrow. 

Elijah Moore: The Browns added Elijah Moore this offseason in a trade with the New York Jets, and he played well in training camp, which could lead to a major role this season. The ever-steady Amari Cooper should lead this team in targets, but don’t be shocked in Moore is a close second. 

Bengals vs. Browns prediction and pick

I am a little worried about Burrow’s calf in this game, especially after his slow start in 2022, but I’m not going to let it distract me from the fact that this is a great line on Cincinnati. 

The Bengals have been elite against the spread the past two seasons, going 27-13 ATS, second to only the Detroit Lions for the highest cover percentage in the NFL. 

Not only that, but Cincy covered the spread in seven straight games near the end of the 2022 campaign, winning all of those matchups. 

The Browns should be improved this season with a full season of Watson, but the fact that Newsome and Ward are nursing injuries is a major concern against this Cincinnati receiving corps. 

As long as Burrow is healthy enough to play, I think the Bengals can run away with this game, especially since the Browns struggled against Cincy last year with Watson in the lineup. 

I’ll forget the points in this game and simply take the Bengals to start the season 1-0. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.