Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction and odds for AFC Championship Game (Don’t sleep on Cincy)

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY

Can the Cincinnati Bengals really do it again? 

Cincy dominated the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round on Sunday to advance to its second straight AFC Championship Game, but it will run into a tough Kansas City Chiefs squad. 

The Bengals have not lost to the Chiefs since Joe Burrow took over as the team’s quarterback, and Cincy has actually moved from an underdog to a road favorite since the line for this game opened. 

That could be due to the ankle injury that Mahomes suffered against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the Bengals do have the Chiefs’ number right now. Burrow and company made the Super Bowl last season by upsetting K.C., and it finally looks like Vegas is taking them seriously. 

Here’s a look at the latest odds for this game, as well as my best bet for the AFC Championship: 

Bengals vs. Chiefs odds, spread and total for AFC Championship Game

Bengals vs. Chiefs betting trends

  • Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games
  • Bengals are 10-0 straight up in their last 10 games
  • Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Chiefs
  • Bengals are 7-1 straight up in their last eight games vs. Chiefs
  • Bengals have covered in nine straight games as underdogs
  • The UNDER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams

Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction and pick

For some reason in the playoffs, this Cincinnati defense goes to a whole new level. 

The Bengals shut down Josh Allen and company in Buffalo, and now they have a chance to replicate a scheme that has worked against Mahomes in the past. 

Mahomes potential lack of mobility could be a problem, as Cincy may just sit back in coverage to try and take away the big play. 

There are a ton of trends going in the Bengals’ favor, including the fact that they’ve been the best team ATS over the last two seasons, going 27-12. 

The Bengals’ defense ranked 19th in yards per play allowed in the regular season, but they are allowing just 235.5 passing yards per game in the postseason. 

Jacksonville was a much easier test for the Chiefs in the divisional round, and Mahomes’ injury prevented them from truly putting the game away. We know that Burrow and the Bengals have the confidence that they can beat this team, and another Super Bowl appearance is on the horizon. 

Give me Cincy to win this one and advance to the Super Bowl. 

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.