The Monday Night Football matchup of the year has finally arrived as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Buffalo Bills with AFC playoff seeding and implications on the line.
The Bills come in 12-3, clinging onto the top spot in the AFC standings ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs despite the same record due to their tiebreaker in a head-to-head victory.
Cincinnati currently comes in 11-4 and can win the AFC North division with a victory or tie after the Ravens lost on Sunday Night Football at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers. If they defeat the Bills, that bumps the Chiefs into first place in the AFC for the time being.
For Cincinnati to claim the top spot, they'll need another victory in Week 18 against Baltimore (which could be more likely if the division is no longer up for grabs), as well as the Las Vegas Raiders upsetting the Chiefs in the final week of the season
Here are the latest odds heading into primetime this evening:
You can find out how I plan to wager on this week's showdown HERE, but for now, let's focus on three different player prop options that offer terrific value heading into Monday Night Football.
Best Monday Night Football Prop Bets for Bills vs. Bengals
- Joe Mixon OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Josh Allen UNDER 22.5 Completions (-125)
- Tyler Boyd Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+350)
Joe Mixon OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards
Buffalo has impressive numbers on the defensive side of the ball, but they've been very average when it comes to stopping the run.
Since the middle of the season, via Josh Larky, the Bills have allowed the 7th-most yards per carry (5 YPC) to running backs after ranking tops in the NFL at just 3 YPC in the first seven weeks.
Mixon finished fourth amongst all running backs in usage during Week 16, and now gets a Bills' defense that's allowing 4.5 yards per rush over their last three game. He's cleared this number in three of his last five games, two of which have gone for 96 and 153 rushing yards in the process.
Josh Allen UNDER 22.5 Completions
Allen has only hit this number once in his last four starts, and twice in his last six games. I can't help but wonder how his recovering elbow is playing a role in his completion percentage hovering in the high 50-low 60 percent range during that time.
He now must take on the best defense in the NFL in completion percentage allowed. The Bengals let teams complete barely above 60% of their passes, coming in at 60.19% for the season.
With Cincinnati still having issues getting to the quarterback (29th in sack percentage), look for Allen to take his time post-snap, and move around the pocket before eventually taking off and running with nobody open downfield.
Tyler Boyd Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Nobody on Cincinnati has seen more red zone targets over the last three weeks than Ja'Marr Chase with nine, resulting in two touchdowns on five catches. But did you know that Tee Higgins, despite catching a touchdown in four straight games has just one more red zone target than Tyler Boyd?
Higgins has five red zone targets through his last three games, three of which have gone for scores. Boyd, on the other hand, only has one score, but four targets in his last three (full) games.
Boyd had been fighting through a finger injury the past few weeks, but appears good to go this week. With Chase barely above even-money odds, and Higgins slightly better, Boyd offers by far the best anytime touchdown scoring value on the board at his odds and target-share.
Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.