Bet this Joe Burrow prop bet vs. Bills

Brian Giuffra
Oct 9, 2022; Baltimore, MD, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) celebrates a
Oct 9, 2022; Baltimore, MD, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) celebrates a / The Enquirer-USA TODAY Sports
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Joe Burrow and the Bengals' offense haven't looked sharp since their game against the Bills was canceled following the injury to Damar Hamlin. They've still cobbled together two wins over the Ravens, but no one was writing sonnets on the offensive beauty in those games.

Now the Bengals head to Buffalo to take on the Bills in what's expected to be a high-scoring game (the total is 49.5 points). That's good news for Joe Burrow prop bet bettors, who have an opportunity to snag a solid payout on his passing TD prop bet.

Joe Burrow passing touchdown prop bet

Right now, the OVER/UNDER on total passing TDs for Burrow is set at 1.5 with the OVER heavily juiced. If you're looking for a longshot, this isn't it, but I do feel it's a winning bet.

Over the last two games, Burrow has only thrown for 1 TD in each. Before that, he had thrown 2 or more TDs in four straight. On the season, he's thrown for 2 or more in 11 of 17 games and, before the Bills-Bengals game was canceled, he threw for a TD on the Bengals' opening drive, going 4-for-4 for 52 yards and a TD pass to Tyler Boyd.

The Bills have one of the best defenses in the league. There's no denying it. They rank third in points allowed per game (18.6) and fifth in opponent yards per play (5.0). But they're better against the rush than the pass and the Bengals are a bad rushing team and an elite passing team. In a game where everything's on the line, I expect the Bengals to play to their strength and build their offensive game plan around Burrow and the pass.

If we think (like Vegas) this is going to be a high-scoring game and the Bengals' best chance to win is through the air, this is the most logical prop bet to make. You could go with an anytime TD pick for Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins or Boyd, but that's more of a roll of the dice to me. I'd rather lean on Burrow, even with lower odds, and bet he does what he normally does in pressure situations.

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