There has been considerable drama surrounding the Cincinnati Bengals this offseason, from contract extensions to new stadium deals, and even Quarterback Joe Burrow's appearance on Netflix's Quarterback. With training camp right around the corner, and fans' excitement building for the upcoming season, there is a feeling of unease surrounding the defensive side of the football.
Many fans are concerned about the contract status of star edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson and unsigned first-round draft pick Shemar Stewart. While I'm certainly hoping these deals will get done sooner rather than later, I believe if we take a step back, there are reasons to be hopeful about the 2025 Bengals defense.
Addition of Defensive Coordinator Al Golden
One thing that has been somewhat lost in the shuffle of the offseason is the change in defensive coordinator from Lou Anarumo to Al Golden. Golden returns to Cincinnati after spending the past 3 years running the defense for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Golden is a familiar face in Cincinnati as he spent the 2020-21 season as the team's linebacker coach. In his time at Notre Dame, Golden consistently coached one of the top units in the nation. According to an article from the Bengals team website, Notre Dame's defense ranked second in the nation in points allowed per game and ninth in total yards allowed under Golden. Golden's ability to extract talent from young players is exciting when considering the current state of the Bengals defense.
Young Players Ready to Take a Leap
Speaking of young players, the 2025 Bengals defense is chock-full of them. The Bengals' decision to commit a large portion of their salary cap resources to core offensive players like Joe Burrow, Ja'marr Chase, and Tee Higgins has created a situation where the team must rely on younger, cheaper players on defense.
One of these young players is Myles Murphy, the team's first-round draft pick in 2023. Murphy was considered a bit of a project coming out of Clemson in that draft and has yet to fully realize his potential in Cincinnati. Last season, Pro Football Focus rated Murphy as a slightly below average edge defender. If we examine the numbers a little bit deeper, however, I believe there is a reason to be optimistic about his impact coming into the 2025 season.
When looking at his PFF grades from a season ago, a few things stand out. One is that he consistently carried an above-average tackling grade, an area that the defense struggled in last year, and likely a major point of emphasis for Golden going into training camp. Another thing that stands out is that he seemed to improve as the season went along. In Murphy's final four games, he posted some of his best pass-rushing and overall defensive grades of the season. This included a game at the Titans where he posted an elite 85 pass-rushing grade, a grade that is in line with teammate Trey Hendrickson's season average.
While this was just a one-game sample, it shows that Murphy still contains the high-end traits and upside that made him a first-round pick 2 years ago. With longtime edge-rusher Sam Hubbard retiring this offseason and the contract situations of Hendrickson and Shemar Stewart still unclear, Murphy will enter the season with a clear path to playing time and a lot to prove.
Another young player to be excited about is cornerback DJ Turner II. Turner will return after breaking his clavicle in the week 11 game against the Los Angeles Chargers. Prior to his injury, Turner was putting together a rock-solid season. PFF gave him a 67.8 overall grade through 11 weeks, good for 65th out of 222 cornerbacks and firmly above average. This was a vast improvement from the 51.5 grade he posted as a rookie. Turner is a potential breakout candidate for the 2025 season if he can continue on this same trajectory.
Add in the likes of Shemar Stewart, Dax Hill, Demetrius Knight II, and Barrett Carter, and it's clear that Al Golden will have a bevy of young, talented players to work with this season. How far this team can go in 2025 might well come down to how much he can extract from these young players.
Regression to the Mean
One of the more interesting things in the NFL is the randomness of defensive performances year over year. Some teams commit extensive resources to the defensive side of the football and tend to have strong defensive units each year. For the more middle-of-the-pack teams, there tends to be a lot of variance. This mostly comes down to the nature of offense versus defense in the NFL.
Offense is proactive. Offenses make plans to attack certain players or schemes, and their success is generally determined by how well they can execute those plans. Offenses also have a quarterback who touches the ball on every snap and makes decisions that greatly impact the course of the game. Defense, on the other hand, is more reactive. While defenders also try to plan for certain offenses, when the ball is snapped, success is determined by the defense's ability to react to what they see.
Another major part of being a successful defense is forcing turnovers. While there is undoubtedly skill that comes with forcing turnovers, luck is also a component. According to a FiveThirtyEight article by Josh Hermsmeyer, home teams that win the turnover battle by one in a game go on to win 73% of their games. In addition, it's noted that experts are about twice as good at predicting offensive performance than defensive performance year-over-year.
One shining example that Hermsmeyer gives is the 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars. The 2017 Jaguars had a remarkable season, powered by a dominant defense. The 2017 team had 55 sacks, 21 interceptions, and recovered 12 fumbles, good enough for a +10 turnover margin over their opponents. The defense powered the team to a surprising AFC Championship appearance.
The 2018 Jaguars told a different story. The sack numbers came way down from 55 to 37. Instead of 21 interceptions, they gathered only 11, and instead of recovering 12 fumbles, they recovered only 6 for a turnover margin of -12. The team went 5-11 as they struggled to make the splashy defensive plays that made them dominant just a year before. The Jaguars even maintained many of their defensive stars, such as Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, and Malik Jackson, between these two seasons.
This is not to say that defense in the NFL is always random. There are plenty of defenses that maintain dominance, such as the Legion of Boom or the Ravens in the early 2000s. What it does show is that for defenses that aren't at that upper echelon, there is a lot of potential variance in year-to-year performance. A defense that was dominant a year ago is not always guaranteed to be dominant again. In the same vein, a defense that underperformed a year ago is not guaranteed to underperform again.
The 2024 Cincinnati Bengals barely missed out on the playoffs, with much of the blame from media and fans falling on the defense. This led to a change in the defensive coordinator from Lou Anarumo to Al Golden, as well as a clear emphasis on picking defensive players in the draft.
With offensive stars Joe Burrow, Ja'marr Chase, and Tee Higgins signed to long-term extensions, the offense appears set to be one of the best in the league. Whether it is the new approach from Golden, the emergence of young talent, or simply a few more plays made in key situations, I think there are reasons to be optimistic about the defense supporting a return to the playoffs in 2025.