Week 1 certainly provided some fireworks as well as some good feels for Cincinnati Bengals fans. The overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings was unexpected, if not extremely satisfying.
After the training camp angst of whether Ja’Marr Chase could actually catch an unstriped ball, all he did was go off for a 50+ yard touchdown and over 100 yards in his debut. The game plan was conservative, but Joe Burrow still looked good, and Joe Mixon ran with anger and purpose.
Perhaps most welcome however was the level of physicality the defensive line played with as they harassed Kirk Cousins all afternoon. A very good sign if they are to keep the vibes good and secure a win over the Chicago Bears Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field.
Sunday, the Bengals once again get to face old friend Andy Dalton. Dalton is still expected to start for Matt Nagy’s Bears despite less than stellar results Sunday night vs the Rams, and the presence of first-round pick Justin Fields waiting in the wings.
What can be expected from a fantasy standpoint? Lots would be my expectation. Both teams are capable (or at least should be) of putting points up, and both defenses definitely have their flaws. Let’s dive into this week’s starts and sits, shall we?
Start ‘Em – Joe Burrow
Well, that certainly feels good to say. After listing Burrow as a “sit” last week, it is time to unleash the franchise on the Bears.
Burrow looked poised, decisive, and mostly accurate against the Vikings despite taking five sacks on the day. Now you might question why it would be a good idea to have Burrow drop back more than 25 times against the Bears if he went down five times against Minnesota.
For starters, the Viking defense is far superior to Chicago’s. The Rams’ Matt Stafford, a fine quarterback in his own right but certainly no more talented than Burrow, strafed the Bear defense for over 300 yards and three touchdowns Sunday night. Does anyone think the Ram skill players are better than the Bengals? I say no.
Secondly, at least three of the sacks were from blown protection, or Burrow simply holding the ball too long. Those issues are correctable, and I expect they will be. Burrow is not the type of quarterback that you will see make the same mistake more than once.
Thirdly, Joe Mixon simply cannot be expected to have 30+ touches a game. This is a 17 game season and with no proven back to spell Mixon, he must be paced or risk injury, which would devastate this offense. Considering these factors I expect more of an air show Sunday.
Prediction: 25-of-37, 306 yards, 3 TD
Start ‘Em – Andy Dalton, QB
I realize the amount of grief I am going to get over this because half the fan base thinks that Dany Dalton is worse than Akili Smith. However, as they say, ‘haters gonna hate’. Truth is, Dalton is a perfectly capable, game manager-type quarterback that on any given week could drop 325 and three scores. While I certainly hope it isn’t this week, I suspect it might be.
Kirk Cousins found ample opportunity against the Bengal secondary on Sunday by working mostly underneath stuff to his possession receivers. Chicago has one of the top possession type receivers in the league in Allen Robinson and the expectation is Dalton will feed him early and often.
With the Bengals once again without Trae Waynes of course, the game plan should be to pressure Dalton and attempt to confuse him. That should result in numerous completions to the middle of the field, and Dalton’s safety valve guys, namely his tight end and running backs.
While there shouldn’t be any downfield splash plays, as the Bengals generally did a good job guarding the deep ball last week, by games end it wouldn’t be shocking to see Dalton with 20-25 completions and approaching 300 yards passing.
If you are looking for a cheap DFS stack this week, Dalton and Darnell Mooney look pretty tasty, and Dalton can be streamed if you are in desperate need.
Prediction: 24-of-37, 327 yards, 3 TD, INT
Start ‘Em – Tyler Boyd, WR
Tyler Boyd posted a very modest three catches for 32 yards on Sunday, as the Bengals offense unveiled Ja’Marr Chase. However, don’t sleep on the 26-year-old former Pitt Panther.
If the game plan against Minnesota was to run and surprise the Vikings with Chase, then the game plan against the Bears could easily be to throw a lot and spread the wealth. Certainly, the Bear coaching staff took note of how the Bengal offense heavily featured Chase and will look to counter by rolling more coverage his way.
The problem with that plan is when you have ostensibly a four-headed monster in Chase, Higgins, Boyd and Mixon, who do you focus on? If you take away one, the others will eat. That forces defenses to either play more straight up or double one guy and hope for the best.
After the five-sack performance last week, I’m sure the Bears plan to try to make Burrow uncomfortable in the pocket. That should open up ample opportunities for Boyd to get open underneath. I doubt anything deep is in the offing, but if you play in a PPR format, Boyd could be a top 10 fantasy receiver Sunday.
Prediction: 8 rec, 110 yards, TD
Sit ‘Em – David Montgomery, RB
Monty had an excellent game against the Rams despite the negative game script, as he rushed 16 times for 108 yards and one touchdown. He looked fresh, fast, and better than he has to begin any of his NFL seasons.
So what’s the problem?
The problem is Damien Williams, who played a healthy 43 percent of the snaps Sunday, and no they weren’t all during garbage time. Williams only had six carries to Montgomery’s 16, but he also logged five targets to Monty’s one. That worked out to 17 touches for Montgomery versus 11 for Williams.
Williams is the clear RB2 in Chicago, but he also comps very similarly to Montgomery ability-wise, and he is the superior pass protector. If the Bengals bring the heat as they did against the Vikings, Williams could see his snap share rise closer to 50 percent, eating into Montgomery’s upside.
Fantasy, especially at running back is all about opportunity and volume. Monty might be a fine flex play this week, but the same could be said for Williams. I expect more of a 50/50 snap share and if the game script remains neutral, Williams could outproduce Montgomery Sunday.
Prediction: 17 total touches, 88 total yards
Sit ‘Em – All Bengal Tight Ends
So maybe this one is too obvious? Why would anyone be starting a tight end group that includes such household names as Drew Sample, C.J. Uzomah, and Mason Schreck?
The short answer is you shouldn’t, but as a fantasy player of some 30 years, I know too often the temptation is to get cute and go contrarian. This is not the time or the group to do that with.
If you don’t own Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, or George Kittle, then the next best option is to stream and hope to get a touchdown. That simply isn’t happening with the Bengal tight ends but, what about the game-saving pass in overtime?
“But… Burrow trusted Uzomah enough to check into a deep ball to him!”
Stop. Just stop already.
There isn’t a premium athlete in this group, and Burrow has far too many weapons to be trusting any of them in the red zone. We can all thank Uzomah for bailing out our Week 1 and move on with our lives.
Prediction combined: 3 rec, 27 yards
Sit ‘Em – Bears Defense
If you are in a league that still starts a defense (and, in my personal opinion, you should be), then let’s just forget about this version of the “Monsters of the Midway”. This by no means is the 1985 Bear defense. Might not even be the 2005 Bear defense.
The point is this unit — whatever we want to call them — was gashed over and over by Matt Stafford on Sunday night. The Bears rush barely got a sniff of Stafford’s Drakkar Noir (I truly hope he wears that), and the Ram receivers ran over, around, and by the Bear corners.
One might be tempted to look at the subpar protection for Joe Burrow last week and expect another five-sack day, but Zac Taylor and the boys (better) improve the scheme to include more quick passes and should have overall better protection from the backs and tight ends.
The Bears are currently going around the 2,700 dollar range in DFS, which is a decent bargain, but I’d avoid that as well. The Bengals did an excellent job with ball security, and Burrow just isn’t the type of quarterback that’s going to make a lot of risky throws. Skip the Bear defense this week.
Can the Bengals continue their strong start with a victory over the Bears in Chicago? Can Joe Burrow continue mostly mistake-free football? Which Bengal will go off this week and win someone’s weekly matchup? Hard to predict really, but certainly should be a good time finding out!