3 reasons why Joe Burrow can unseat Matthew Stafford as NFL MVP

There's a lot of optimism around the Cincinnati Bengals this season, and most of that stems from Joe Burrow. As long as the former Heisman winner is fit, the Bengals' Super Bowl window is open. The past three years have seen injuries to Burrow, but with a solid offensive line in front of him, the hope is that Burrow will be much better protected.

He has always been in discussion as a potential MVP in the NFL, but Burrow has yet to have that standout season. Last year, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford took that crown after throwing for over 4,700 yards and 46 touchdowns, which were both a league-high.

But with the Bengals hopeful of a much-improved season, Burrow could have a better chance to win the MVP than Stafford in 2026.

1 - Joe Burrow had a better completion percentage last year (and is historically [more] accurate)

I accept that this needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, as Burrow only played eight games last year, but in that span, he showed why he is considered one of the elites. He threw for 1,809 yards and 17 touchdowns, averaging a completion percentage of 66.8%.

However, Stafford, despite leading the league in yards and touchdowns, only had a completion percentage of 65%, meaning he had to rely on big plays slightly more than Burrow to pad his stats. With that logic, regression is bound to happen for Stafford in terms of yards and touchdowns, whereas a fully fit season for Burrow could send his numbers through the ceiling.

Precision has never been the name of Stafford's game. He's more of a big-game hunting gunslinger who can get away with sloppy mechanics, but that sometimes gets him into trouble with occasional scattershot accuracy. Meanwhile, Burrow owns the all-time record for career completion percentage at 68.5%. Long way to go, but Joe qualifies!

2 - Joe Burrow has a much easier schedule than Matthew Stafford

A lot of the hype around the Bengals this season has centered on the fact that the defense is much-improved after the additions of Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen and more. However, they also have one of the best schedules in the NFL.

According to Sharp Football, Cincy has the third-easiest schedule in the NFL, only behind the Detroit Lions and the New Orleans Saints, so Burrow should have more opportunity to put up big numbers.

The Rams, on the other hand, have the fifth-hardest schedule in the NFL, and so Stafford could find himself coming up against more elite defenses, which is bound to impact his performance levels, especially as he's 38 now, and injury is more of a concern.

3 - Joe Burrow's very best games are the stuff of legend, not just MVP-worthy

There's no doubt that Stafford is capable of putting up big numbers, as we saw last year, however, Burrow is one of, if not the best to do it in NFL history. The Bengals QB holds the record for the most yards in a single game in the league, as he threw for 525 yards against the Ravens in 2021.

He is one of just five quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for over 500 yards, with the others being Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, and you guessed it, Matt Stafford.

So, you could say this argument is futile, but Burrow's 500+ yard game came just five years ago, whereas Stafford's was in 2012, 14 years ago (520 yards vs Green Bay).

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Burrow put up another 500+ yard game in 2026, and go on to win the MVP, as he has as good a chance as anyone, including the reigning Stafford.

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