The Cincinnati Bengals truly do get Rodney Dangerfield levels of respect. Maybe it's because Joe Burrow hasn't stayed healthy in recent years. Maybe it's their decades-long precedent of middling achievement and indefatigable frugality.
Whatever the case may be, I think we can all agree that, the notion of Burrow being overdue for a healthy season is a bit arbitrary, nebulous, and not the most, you know, precise NFL analysis ever posited. Doesn't make it less true, though, does it?
As long as Burrow stays upright, this Bengals team with a revamped defense and all 11 starters coming back on Joe Shiesty's offensive unit should be in the Super Bowl mix.
Except...one notable expert believes Burrow will play some of the worst ball of his career and still guide the Bengals to an 11-6 record or thereabouts. Mind you, that's Joe's precise win-loss record in his last 17 starts with a far inferior roster.
Joe Burrow projected to fall well short of franchise record aspirations in 2026
ESPN's Mike Clay is apparently some kind of stat guru who came up with rather exacting numbers on how every team will fare in 2026. Although he has a rather rosy outlook for the Bengals overall (projected 10.7 wins), Clay's modest predictions for Burrow should inspire more optimism in Cincinnati.
Burrow recently said that the franchise record for touchdowns is doable, even though it'd take a career-high 48 TD passes to get there.
#Bengals QB Joe Burrow says this team is the most talented roster they’ve had since he entered the NFL, and that includes the team that made the Super Bowl in 2021.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) May 20, 2026
Burrow also said throwing 48 TDs, which would break the all-time franchise record, is “doable.”
(🎥 @Bengals) pic.twitter.com/Za7jF8xl2H
Alas, Clay expects Burrow to complete 385 of 569 pass attempts for 4,120 yards, 33 TDs and 11 INTs this year. That'd be 7.24 yards per attempt, a 67.7% completion rate, and a 99.9 passer rating. He'll also apparently take 41 sacks.
Granted, I get that Burrow has completed only one of his last three seasons, but when last he did, he led the NFL in passing yards and passing TDs. Joe Brrr has more chemistry with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins than he did in 2024. They're more experienced. The Bengals return all five starters from the best offensive line of the Burrow era by far.
If Joe plays just a little better than this forecast, the rest of the league is in serious trouble for the next few years. And imagine what Clay's model for win-loss predictions would compute then.
What am I missing here? Am I expected to believe that Burrow will play *below* his career average or thereabouts in all major statistical categories, whilst presumably having a much better defense to support him?
Take this all into count and remember that the Bengals are believed to have one of the NFL's easier schedules. Clay himself has it ranked the second-easiest! They weren't supposed to make another deep playoff run on the heels of Super Bowl LVI because of their supposed brutal slate. Despite starting 0-2, Burrow got them to the AFC Championship Game anyway.
Long story short: Joe Burrow is good. Support dude with other dudes who can actually block and yet more dudes who can actually play some defense — we're not asking for the moon here — watch the wins pile up.
Think about what Burrow could do with the best pass protection of his career, probably the best running game, and a defense that's at least in arm's reach of the teams that made those dual postseasons so memorable. I'm thinking closer to his 2024 MVP-caliber form than some arbitrary drop-off to by-his-lofty-standards mediocrity.
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