The Cincinnati Bengals can't seem to stop getting good breaks leading up to their Week 1 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In addition to star Bucs nose tackle Vita Vea demanding a trade, quarterback Baker Mayfield is disgruntled about his contract talks. Cincinnati's respective counterparts, Dexter Lawrence and Joe Burrow, couldn't be vibing better in the midst of training camp.
To me, the ultimate power move would be for the Bengals to go all-in yet again, trade for Vea, and roll out Vita and Sexy Dexy for the season opener to dominate Tampa in the trenches.
It's a pipe dream, sure, but nobody expected Cincinnati to actually trade the 10th overall pick for Lawrence in the first place.
Anywho, the Bengals are 3.5-point favorites versus the Bucs in Week 1 according to DraftKings' latest betting lines. There are some surprising elements to that spread that we'll dive into below.
Vita Vea and Baker Mayfield haven't moved Bucs-Bengals line
Oddsmakers either believe the Bucs will figure out their contract tensions with Vea and Mayfield, or that the former's far more likely departure (he requested a trade) isn't enough to sway the spread. It's stayed rock-solid at 3.5 for weeks now.
If you ask me, Vea is one of the most dominant defensive tackles in the sport. He wants out of Tampa amid a contract year. The Bucs could easily trade him for a rather high draft pick.
But the larger point is that the line hasn't reacted to the recent news of Vea's demands or Baker's disappointment with how far apart the team is in getting a new deal done for him. It may just be that
Maybe the sharps who create these spreads are like me and don't believe it's that big of a drop-off between Baker and ex-Bengal Jake Browning, his new backup. I mean it definitely is a drop-off. Just don't sleep on Jake recovering his 2023 form where he almost got Cincinnati to the playoffs.
Slow starts under Zac Taylor haven't harmed Cincinnati's Week 1 odds
Even though the Bengals started 2-0 last season, that was a total illusion. They lost 11 of their next 15 games, and the two initial wins were super ugly. This is commonplace during the Zac Taylor era.
Some of those past Weeks 1 and 2 struggles are to do with Burrow either rehabbing or recovering from injuries. Still, it's a discouraging, years-running trend that Taylor can hopefully rectify in 2026.
I'm surprised that hasn't scared the spread down by at least a point. Yes, the Bengals are home and Lawrence's presence alone should upgrade their defense by a lot. Just think back to Week 1 in 2024, though. The eventual one-and-done Jerod Mayo Patriots beat Cincinnati at Paycor Stadium. That loss ultimately cost the Bengals a postseason berth.
So why are the sportsbooks adamant that this Cincinnati team should handle business against the Bucs? Well, one massive matchup advantage springs to mind.
Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should have Week 1 field day
Bengals superstar receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are only elevated by Burrow's elite quarterback play. As much scrutiny as Taylor has faced as a head coach, the Bucs' Todd Bowles was the most surprising head honcho not to be fired this offseason.
Bowles calls the shots for the Bucs defense. He is a notorious blitzer. Putting the likes of Zyon McCollum and Benjamin Morrison on an island against Chase and Higgins, never mind a cerebral QB like Burrow, is a recipe for abject disaster.
Chase and Higgins are a tough draw for any cornerback corps. It's tough for Tampa, too, that legendary linebacker Lavonte David, they may not have Vea on the roster, and their first-round pick, pass-rusher Rueben Bain, will likely need some time to adjust to the NFL game with his historically short arms.
The necessity for Bowles to bring pressure against the best offensive line Burrow has ever had, combined with the obvious edge Chase and Higgins have on the Bucs' boundary cornerbacks, should result in the Bengals absolutely lighting up the scoreboard.
With an over/under total points line of 51.5, the implied final score is Bengals 28, Bucs 24, or thereabouts. I could easily see Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Co. dropping a 40-burger on Tampa's secondary.
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