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Dexter Lawrence trade is in reach if Bengals pull simple salary cap levers

Big, necessarily-capitalized "IF", right?
Nov 8, 2024; Munich, Germany; New York Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II (97) during press conference at the FC Bayern Munchen training grounds at Sabener Strasse.  Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Nov 8, 2024; Munich, Germany; New York Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II (97) during press conference at the FC Bayern Munchen training grounds at Sabener Strasse. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Bengals aren't exactly synonymous with savvy salary cap maneuvers. Here's hoping that changes in pursuit of a potential Dexter Lawrence trade.

Lawrence's trade request went public after a multi-year contract spat with the New York Giatns. He's a 340-pound nose tackle with elite pass rushing capabilities, and is a major asset in clogging lanes versus the run. Sounds like the absolute dream acquisition for Cincinnati's maligned defense.

A prospective trade means paying the 28-year-old near the top of the market. We'll recap the semi-viral trade package I came up with that also vaults the Bengals into the draft's top five, and explain how easily doable it is to shell out the necessary money for Lawrence despite the hefty payday he'll command.

Bengals' 3-year salary cap outlook would be just fine after dream Dexter Lawrence trade with contract restructures

Here's a snapshot of the proposed trade package below from the piece I linked to in the lede. I've included the seven-round mock draft haul I came up with, beyond the scope of the initial article's four-round mock draft:

OK but let's stray away from Fantasy Land for a second. Don't hold me to any other draft pick aside from Sonny Styles. That's my guy.

Trading up for Styles would alter the OverTheCap.com numbers on effective salary cap space, which takes into account rookie draft classes in the coming years.

We'll tack on an extra $4 million each year of this three-year plan to accommodate the fifth pick in line with the rookie wage scale — even though the Day 2 picks Cincinnati gives up in the trade will free up more effective cap space. Just trying to underscore how doable this is all the more.

Here's what it looks like if the Bengals rework Lawrence's current contract, which has two years remaining and will require a significant raise: The cap hits for Lawrence go to $29.5 million in 2026, $31.5 million in 2027, and $34 million in 2028.

Not how I'd structure the contract, but this is the Bengals wer'e talking about. Also bear in mind that NFL will likely add an 18th regular-season game by the final year of Lawrence's deal. For that reason alone, the salary cap is bound to explode past the conservative $352 million projection for 2028 that OverTheCap.com has as of now.

So now, if Cincinnati had any wherewithal or know-how to execute contract restructures whatsoever, it'd be affordable to retain the entire core of the team and pay Lawrence what he wants.

Check out the salary cap savings for the following restructures, in addition to the mock trade of Slaton, who creates a 2026 savings of $6.6 million with his imagined departure:

  • 2026 — Joe Burrow ($19.23 million)
  • 2027 — Ja'Marr Chase ($18.2 million); Tee Higgins ($11.52 million); Boye Mafe ($7.27 million)
  • 2028 — Bryan Cook ($4.45 million)

Now let's walk through the contract extensions the Bengals should absolutely get done. We'll go $5 million per season north of what Spotrac valuates DJ Turner and Dax Hill at as of today, and stick with the baseline evaluations in all other cases just to bake in some potential overpaying.

  • DJ Turner: 4 years, $76 million
  • Dax Hill: 4 years, $56 million
  • Chase Brown: 3 years, $33 million
  • Jordan Battle (own projection): 3 years, $24 million
  • Myles Murphy: 2027 5th-year option ($14.475 million), plus 2-year, $42 million extension

Here's what the approximate effective cap space would look like for each year, with inflated contracts and not taking into account the savings from the draft picks lost to the Lawrence trade:

  • 2026 — $10 million
  • 2027 — $13.5 million
  • 2028 — -$2.8 million

So we're pretty close. This is where the escape hatch of another Burrow contract restructure comes in mighty handy. AND REMEMBER, once again, the salary cap estimate is silly-conservative right now. It could wind up being some $30 million higher than anticipated.

According to OTC's listed figures for Burrow's contract, a 2028 restructure frees up a whopping $27.4 million in cap space. That'd probably change some with the prior restructure, but for simplicity's sake, let's roll with that figure.

Plus, the Bengals might've found a new left tackle through the draft by this point, allowing them to cut Orlando Brown Jr. before 2028 to save an additional $14+ million.

And once 2028 ends, the only must-keep free agent appears to be right tackle Amarius Mims. His extension won't kick in until 2029, when the Bengals pick up his fifth year option. That should be worth something like $15 million. Maybe a touch more.

Bottom line, the difference between the Burrow savings and the Mims money should free up at least $10 million on its own in 2028 to get out of the red. Never mind the $14 million Brown's release would create.

If the Bengals were daring enough, and just pulled some simple salary cap levers, they could indeed go all-in on a Dexter Lawrence trade, and position themselves to get Sonny Styles, and keep their most critical core players. All with plenty of room to spare.

For those who want to hear more about my Lawrence trade pitch, check out my latest appearance on the Bengals Pulse podcast.

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