No executive in the NFL is more romantic about a defensive end with upside and little to no proof that they can fully capitalize on their immense talents than the Cincinnati Bengals' own Duke Tobin.
Just look at the likes of draft picks such as Joseph Ossai, Myles Murphy, and Shemar Stewart. Light bulb didn't really go on for Ossai until a brief stretch last season, his fourth in the NFL. Similar story for Murphy, thankfully in his Year 3. And Stewart is very much a TBD type of project.
With Murphy's fifth-year option on the horizon looming as a tough decision, Ossai likely leaving in free agency, and Trey Hendrickson for sure gone, the future looks strange in Cincinnati's defensive end rotation.
Any sort of free-agent addition would go a long way. I'd vote for recent Seattle Super Bowl champ Boye Mafe, but that's just me. Why do I have a bad feeling that Tobin is about to make a so-called "splash" for someone who should terrify Bengals fans as a prospective free-agent target.
Colts DE Kwity Paye is not the Lou Anarumo payback (Paye-back) Bengals are looking for
Couldn't resist the downright horrible pun opportunity there. In researching this piece, I happened to stumble upon a theretofore unseen list of free agents made by ESPN's Seth Walder. This broke down the most overrated and underrated players on the open market.
Guess who cracked the "overrated" category as Walder made the lion's share of my argument for me? That's right. Indianapolis Colts defensive end Kwity Paye.
"I'm guessing Paye will get some money as a former first-round pick who has racked up 30.5 sacks in five seasons. But I would be careful. Among qualifying edge rushers, Paye finished last in pass rush win rate at the position at only 4.5%. His pressure rate among those same players was in the 12th percentile. Those are damning numbers for down-to-down play. He was in the bottom quartile in both metrics in 2024, too. His pass rush win rate at edge was almost average in 2023, but I believe his recent performance is too lackluster to pay him real money."
Getting revenge on ex-Bengals defensive coordinator and current Colts DC Lou Anarumo by stealing Paye away wouldn't be the flex some would think it is. In fact, in light of the Baltimore Ravens' mind-bending Maxx Crosby trade, I'd rather the Bengals poach from that particular AFC North rival. Or at least from their lineage.
That is to say, past Ravens first-round pick, Odafe Oweh, or free-agent veteran Dre'Mont Jones at nearly half the price with superior inside-out versatility, would be the far more preferable options for my taste.
Circling back to Kwity Paye now. Through vague memory, I recalled Paye being a freakazoid of an athlete when he came out of the University of Michigan. Only in looking back at Paye's testing numbers did I realize just how absurd his physical tools are.
Paye didn't work out at the Combine in 2021. He did go through drills at Michigan's pro day. Those numbers can tend to have a little local help to them, but regardless, this man registered a 3-cone drill time of 6.37 seconds. He also put up 36 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press.
How does someone with that much lateral quickness and raw power not produce better numbers in the NFL to date? I, too, am stumped.
And there's no way Duke Tobin should take the plunge and give Paye a huge payday. It's an unnecessary risk that could set Cincinnati back quite a ways, and there is zero margin for error with Joe Burrow's future beyond 2026 very much hanging in the balance.