Key metrics that should drive Bengals bounce-back in 2026 NFL Draft

We are in the middle of the regular season, but you can already tell that some teams and fanbases have already started taking a long look at next year’s draft-eligible quarterbacks. 

We’re looking at you, Cleveland Browns.

Fortunately for the Cincinnati Bengals, we do not expect them to target a QB early in the draft. However, they have surely begun their evaluations on other positions. 

Last year, the Bengals used their evaluations and the advanced stat of blown block rate to identify a critical need along the offensive line in the 2025 NFL draft. 

We should hope they do the same for the 2026 draft, using a different stat, but focusing on the defensive side of the ball this time. 

The advanced stat paying off for rookies

Coming out of the 2024 season, their starting guards were among the worst in the league in terms of blown block rate. They were also just overall bad.

The team cut starting left guard Cordell Volson’s salary and demoted him to the second string. They also moved on from right guard Alex Cappa, who, in the minds of Raiders fans, has continued his personal assault against his starting quarterback. 

In their place, they drafted Fairchild in the third round to anchor the left guard position from Day 1. 

In the fourth round, they drafted Jalen Rivers out of the University of Miami. Despite playing tackle in college, the Bengals wanted to see what they had in him all over the offensive line. During the preseason, they tried to fill both tackle spots and guard positions. He ended up being a better guard than tackle. 

Fairchild and Rivers have managed to hold off competition from healthy free agent additions, Lucas Patrick and Dalton Risner. 

Fairchild and Rivers were two of the best in the 2025 NFL draft class in the percentage of blown blocks category. Fairchild was third for guards, and Rivers was first for tackles. 

Even more impressive, Rivers had a perfect blown block rate in the rushing attack. 

Going back to the 2024 draft, the Bengals selected Amarius Mims with the 18th overall selection. He ranked third-best among tackles since 2023.

Next step is identifying advanced stat targeting defense

Look for Cincinnati‘s front office to attempt to duplicate the success that they are currently having with Mims and their offensive rookie class in next year’s draft, but this time on the defensive side. 

A couple of years ago, everyone in their mother fixated on perceived athleticism and RAS scores. This year, because of the deplorable performance on the defensive side of the ball in general, and their rookie draft class in particular, everyone is now focused on college production. 

Who knew you had to be good at football in college to expect to be good at football and the pro level? 

While people will focus on numbers, such as sacks, pressures, and tackles for loss, we should keep a close eye on which draft-eligible defenders rank lowest in missed tackle rates, as these players should have the scouts’ full attention.

However, as we now know all too well, even pressure rates must eventually turn into sack production for edge, rusher, and defensive tackles. For that to happen, there can’t be a player who misses many tackles or has run stop rates on the level of Shemar Stewart, as seen during his time at Texas A&M, which was even more concerning than his lack of past rush production. 

Or at least, it should have been.

And yet, somehow, he received an invitation to the NFL draft, which is a testament to the lack of scouting on the part of the entire NFL, not just the Bengals.

Advanced stats are a tool, not a panacea

For now, it is difficult to judge which hidden stat the personnel department will rely on to help them wisely choose defensive rookies to help turn around a historically bad defense, which is on pace to break the record for the most points allowed in a season. 

However, we will go out on the proverbial limb and say it will involve missed and total tackles.

No, it won’t be as simple as identifying one advanced statistic or physical trait when drafting good players. Ultimately, it should come down to what is on film, backed up by advanced metrics when available. 

With that said, identifying the blown block rate for offensive linemen in the draft and selecting two of the best in that category is working out this season for the Bengals and their much-improved, after being much-aligned, offensive line. 

Defensive prospects who excel at key stat

There are already numerous names circulating in the Bengalsphere as potential first-round targets. But those are sure to change multiple times before April. For example, just two weeks ago, Miami’s defensive end Rueben Bain was the best pass rusher since Lawrence Taylor. That noise has since quieted. 

Nevertheless, there are several players who excel at getting ballcarriers to the ground that Bengals fans can focus on. 

According to NFL Draft Buzz, new draft darling, Ohio State’s Arvell Reese, ranks as the third-best tackler among draft-eligible linebackers behind Georgia’s CJ Allen and Texas’ Anthony Hill Jr.

Current fascination, Ohio State's Caleb Downs, ranks as their best-tackling safety, followed by Texas’ Michael Taaffe. 

The best tackling defensive lineman, according to NFL Draft Buzz, is Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell. 

While we should all be proponents of the Bengals severing ties with whoever they talk to at College Station, if Howell ends up as the best option for the Bengals once the evaluation process is over, the PTSD of picks like Cedric Ogbuehi and Shemar Stewart should not prevent the front office from going in that direction. 

In case you were wondering, NFL Draft Buzz ranked Shemar Stewart their 93rd-best tackling defensive lineman. That 93rd ranking does not include linebackers, cornerbacks, or safeties from last year's class. 

That ranking is also generous for anyone who actually watched Cincinnati’s 2025 first-round pick play the sport of football. 

Draft season coming in as fast as Bengals missed tackles

Believe it or not, we are only a month out from the College Bowl season. If you’re tired of seeing mock drafts now, wait about four weeks when you won’t be able to avoid them like the plague. 

And before the so-called experts begin to throw lots of numbers and various statistics your way, some of them useful, others nonsensical, and have nothing to do with football, look at the draft-eligible defenders with a low miss tackle rate, among other productivity numbers. 

Those types of stats could be an excellent indicator of where the Bengals are looking to improve on defense. At the very least, it should be an indicator following this lackluster defensive effort this season. 

Identifying the missed tackle rates is a great metric to find when you’re trying to figure out which edge rusher, safety, and linebacker to target in your predictive mock drafts.

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