When you think of the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense, your mind goes to three people usually. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are the chief drivers of the Cincy offense, so they naturally take most of the attention nationally. That's what happens when you have a top-five quarterback, a top-two receiver, and arguably the best WR2 in the NFL today.
However, coming into this season, there's one name that non-Bengals fans need to look out. Chase Brown has quietly been one of the better running backs in the NFL today. When talking about who to watch out for in the Cincinnati offense, Burrow pointed to Brown, not Higgins, as the next player after Chase.
""Obviously we're going to get the ball in (wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase)'s hands as many times as we can," Burrow said in late July. "But I think a close second is Chase Brown just because of how explosive he is and the things he can do with the ball in his hands.""
Chase has become a popular pick in fantasy football as a result of this. FantasyPros has him as the RB6 right now, and his ADP at the time of writing sits at around 16.6, going in the early to middle of the second round in most drafts. Here's why the Bengals star will not only live up to the hype, but potentially even outplay his ADP.
Bengals’ renewed under center effort favors Brown
There's been a lot of talk about the Bengals finally focusing on practicing their under-center play. This has been a major point of emphasis for the Bengals year-after-year, but they've never fully dug their heels into doing this strategy. This year, things seem to be much, much different.
The Bengals ran a lot of plays under center in training camp. They also took a bunch of snaps under center in their preseason game. Burrow, who is perhaps the most prominent QB to favor a shotgun snap, took the ball from under center in more than half of his preseason snaps. There's a commitment to practicing this formation more, and it's going to be a big help for Brown.
Brown was elite from the backfield, but the difference between his efficiency when taking the ball from shotgun vs. under center was massive. Last season, Brown finished 10th in rushing yards per game with 4.7 yards per carry. When a Bengals quarterback took the ball from under center, he averaged 5.1 yards. However, when Cincinnati ran from shotgun, it plummeted to 4.5 yards.
What's even more telling is the explosive run rate for Brown. He finished in explosive run rate percentage last year, but he was significantly more effective in under center formations. He had explosive runs (10+ yards in one carry) 12.2% of the time under center and 7.3% of the time from shotgun.
This isn't new news for football-minded fans. Run plays that work from under center formations are just naturally better at generating better yardage. There are better angles for blockers to take, the running back has different options to cut back to, defenders have a harder time deciphering the play. There's a million reasons why running from under center is better. The Bengals, though, strayed away from this to play to their biggest strength: Joe Burrow's processing.
Despite everything that should hinder Brown from becoming an effective running back in fantasy, he was still a solid pickup last season. He averaged 16.6 fantasy points every week in PPR leagues, thanks in large part to his pass-catching capabilities. Cincinnati heavily involved Brown in their passing attack: he caught 69 passes for 437 yards and five receiving touchdowns.
A new offensive philosophy = more Brown touches
Here's a fun fact for you: the Bengals ranked 6th in rushing EPA (expected points on average) last season.
This feels wrong, doesn't it? The Bengals are a predominantly pass-first team. One would think that their offensive philosophy means that they didn't run the ball often because they weren't good at it. But no: when Cincinnati did go to the run game, they were incredibly effective. Brown was really good at giving the team positive yardage on the ground.
The problem is that the Bengals barely went to their run game at all last year. They ranked second-to-last in rushing attempts last season, running the ball around 36% of the time. Again, it's a testament to Brown's explosiveness that he was able to manufacture a season like last year despite getting fewer touches than every top running back in the league.
An encouraging Week 1 start, despite the numbers
There's a lot of reason to be excited about Chase Brown, and his Week 1 performance showed exactly that. On paper, it isn't exactly eye-popping, but look under the hood and you'll see plenty of reasons why Brown can succeed so much more.
Brown finished Week 1 with 18.8 fantasy points after recording 56 rushing yards (on 16 carries), 5 catches, 22 receiving yards, and one touchdown. These aren't necessarily RB1 numbers, but what matters more is how the Bengals gave Brown the ball... and what defense they faced.
The Bengals' under-center project was in full swing in Week 1, and Brown was one of the primary benefactors of this. He received the ball from under center in 62.5% of his snaps, compared to 41% from last year, per Joe Goodberry. While it didn't quite pan out yet, we've seen the numbers from last season that indicate that things will get even better for Brown.
Part of why Brown (and Samaje Perine) had quiet games on the ground was due to how the Buccaneers played them. Brown faced a stacked box in 50% of his carries in Week 1. According to Goodberry, he and Derrick Henry were the only two running backs who faced stacked boxes more than 40%.
As the season goes on, the box will eventually get lighter as Burrow's passing attack gets more and more comfortable. This should easily open up more opportunities for Brown to take over as a fantasy demon.
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