If the Cincinnati Bengals are going to make the playoffs, they'll need to be a historically bad AFC North division champion with a sub-.500 record. That's the only path forward to the postseason as of now.
A devastating 39-34 loss in Buffalo has the Bengals sitting at 4-9 to clinch their first losing season since 2020. Joe Burrow was a rookie then, and Ja'Marr Chase hadn't even reached the NFL.
The Burrow-Chase combination is alive and well. Burrow looks like his old self coming off his major turf toe injury, save for a couple costly interceptions against the Bills. But let's dive in to see what miracles it'd take for Cincinnati to seize the AFC North crown.
Playoff picture looking bleak for Bengals after loss to Bills, lack of help around the AFC
Tiebreaking procedures in NFL divisions begin with head-to-head records. You can toss that out for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who the Bengals split the season series with. Although Cincinnati can sweep its two-game set with the Baltimore Ravens this coming Sunday, Week 14 basically made that tiebreaker irrelevant.
WCPO's Caleb Noe highlighted just how bad the playoff outlook is for the Bengals.
Today was worst case scenario for the Bengals.
— Caleb Noe (@CalebNoeTV) December 7, 2025
(Bengals lose, Steelers win)
Bengals would be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Ravens next week.
If the Bengals win next week & stay in playoff contention — They would still need the Steelers to… https://t.co/SCboVfnrHj
📺 Some thoughts on the #Bengals & their playoff chances:
— Caleb Noe (@CalebNoeTV) December 8, 2025
“If the Bengals miss the playoffs … it’s not (anyone else’s) fault.”
- Me
“With 4 wins, why do we believe the Bengals can get 4 more wins, in 4 games?”
- @marshallkramsky pic.twitter.com/xAtmhMSClu
The Steelers' victory over the Ravens on Sunday means they need to lose three of their next four at least. That'd include either a defeat in Week 18's rematch against Baltimore, or in Week 17 versus the Browns.
It helps Cincinnati that the Ravens are reeling to such a severe degree as they prepare to square off in Week 15. Still, the Bengals need to get that win over Baltimore, dropping them to 7-8. Then, the Ravens must lose to Super Bowl contenders New England or Green Bay down the stretch.
And yes, of course the Bengals must run the table from here. They do get three of their last four at home, first hosting the Ravens, then taking a road trip to Miami before finishing with the Cardinals and Browns.
So the path is for Pittsburgh to drop one or both of its last two division games, in addition losing one matchup to either Miami this coming Monday night, or at Detroit in Week 16.
The Steelers have to finish 1-3 with one additional loss in the division. Otherwise, it's Joe-ver for the Bengals. If this all sounds super unlikely, that's because it is — and it should mean either de facto GM Duke Tobin or head coach Zac Taylor are shown the door this offseason.