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What a successful bounce-back year looks like for Bengals' last first-round pick

Unfortunately, the bar is pretty low...
Aug 31, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals’ Shemar Stewart throws out the first pitch before the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
Aug 31, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals’ Shemar Stewart throws out the first pitch before the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images | Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Even if many of us Cincinnati Bengals fans saw Shemar Stewart looking like a potential bust from a mile away, the 2025 first-round pick still has time to redeem himself.

Those who are still high on Stewart will point to his elite-of-elite athleticism, combined with nagging injuries, as reasons why he'll bounce back as an NFL sophomore. However, the 22-year-old has a lot of growing up to do in short order, plus some serious competition to overcome on the depth chart.

Considering Stewart, a top-17 pick at a premium position, is unlikely to crack the starting lineup in his second season in Cincinnati, what does a good year look like for him? Let's dive in.

Expectations are sadly low for Bengals DE Shemar Stewart

It speaks volumes about Cincinnati's changes as an organization that Duke Tobin and the scouting department drafted a player at Stewart' position with their first pick of this year's draft. Well, technically the 10th overall pick was first, but that was shipped to the Giants in exchange for All-Pro nose tackle Dexter Lawrence.

Stewart's ex-college teammate, Cashius Howell, is the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year and dwarfed Stewart's collegiate sack total in 2025 alone, with 11.5 to his 4.5 in three seasons.

Although Howell is planned to be more of a hybrid linebacker/edge type, the fact that Stewart couldn't beat out the likes of Myles Murphy or Joseph Ossai last season speaks to how far off he is from realizing his potential. Some due respect to Murphy and Ossai, those cats can't hold Shemar's jock from a physical tools standpoint. Not many can, to be fair!

Between pricey free agent Boye Mafe, Murphy, and Howell, there's some room for Stewart to work into the rotation — but not a lot. Shoot, it's possible Cedric Johnson bypasses him.

Anyway, I'm rather bullish on Stewart. He can't do much worse than he did a season ago, when he somehow managed to be PFF's worst-graded edge defender (119th out of 119). You almost have to go out of your way to be that bad with Stewart's athletic gifts.

Teh additions of Lawrence and Jonathan Allen at defensive tackle should be force multipliers for the Bengals' pass rush. Cincinnati hasn't had anyone close to their caliber to push the pocket from the inside during the Joe Burrow era.

Between them fellas, Mafe's presence on the edge, and Murphy's continuing ascent, Stewart should stay fresh and be able to capitalize on favorable matchups whenever he is on the field.

Projected 2026 Shemar Stewart stats

Last year's stat line for Stewart was a mere 11 tackles on eight games, with two TFL, one sack, and one pass deflection. For the 2026 campaign, we'll go a little better, if only because he's more experienced and should be (fingers crossed) healthier.

My predictions for Stewart's stats are as follows: 15 games played, 28 total tackles (4.5 TFL), three sacks, two pass deflections and a forced fumble.

A meaningful per-game productivity increase. For me, Stewart's impact won't show up as much in the box score. He still has a raw skill set, but has enough juice to generate quick wins and disrupt plays.

The only problem is, Stewart's inability to finish plays with a tackle was a big weak point of his as a prospect. That didn't go away last season. He is, in all likelihood, a year away from being a year away in that department. Thus, other players will benefit from his disruption.

Even if Stewart's 2026 numbers still paint him as a draft bust, I reckon he'll show enough improvement to eventually emerge as a quality starter by the next season.

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