Best NFL Prop Bets for Bengals vs. Buccaneers in Week 15 (Back Both Quarterbacks to Throw Early and Often)

Ben Heisler
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) adjusts wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) on the line.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) adjusts wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) on the line. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY
facebooktwitterreddit

The Cincinnati Bengals could plunder the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' playoff chances when they face off later today.

The Bucs are 6-7 on the year, but are 0-4 in non-conference play and only hold a single game lead to the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South division heading into Sunday.

The Bengals, meanwhile, could take a single game lead over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North with a victory on the road following the Ravens' loss as a 3-point underdog to the Cleveland Browns.

Here are the latest odds from Raymond James Stadium for this afternoon's marquee matchup:

BetSided's Iain MacMillan wrote up his breakdown between the Ravens and Bengals for earlier this week on who should be the best bet to win the AFC North, as well as his best bet for Cincinnati's Week 15 road matchup here.

Here are my favorite player props available on the board for today:

Best NFL Prop Bets for Bengals vs. Buccaneers

  • Joe Burrow OVER 36.5 Passing Attempts (-125)
  • Tyler Boyd Longest Reception UNDER 17.5 Yards (-114)
  • Tom Brady OVER 25.5 Passing Completions (-105)

Joe Burrow OVER 36.5 Passing Attempts

The odds for this game have remained a bit of a surprise considering how dominant the Bengals have been vs. the spread, and how terrible Tampa has been. This is literally the best ATS team in the NFL against the worst, playing in a stadium where the Bucs have yet to cover a single time.

As you'll read later, I expect Brady to throw a bunch, and as a result, the Bucs may do anything they can to kick their offense back into a high gear they've been missing for the bulk of the season.

This leads the game script to have Burrow and company throwing more often then perhaps they'd like, but may resort to regardless.

Burrow and the Bengals rank just outside the top 10 in pass play percentage in the NFL and eighth in passes/game. While the Bucs haven't been the dominant run-stuffing team like in years past, the Bengals still only average 4 yards/rush and are bottom 7 in rushing yards per game.

They'll need Burrow to be throwing consistently this afternoon, leading to the over on his passing attempts on the road.

Tyler Boyd Longest Reception UNDER 17.5 Yards

Boyd remains a high floor, low risk option for Burrow in the middle of the field, and with the Bucs' secondary needing to concern themselves with the possibility of Ja'Marr Chase turning into a yards-after-catch machine, I expect Cincinnati to use Boyd in the slot as the safety valve option for the Bengals when not much is open.

Boyd has hit this number twice in the last four weeks, but only two times over the last six games.

Boyd could end up hitting his over/under on receiving yards and receptions, but I'd bet against any of them turning into big chunk plays.

Tom Brady OVER 26.5 Passing Completions

Nobody in the NFL has attempted more pass attempts than Brady, ahead of Justin Herbert of the Chargers by 18, as well as in completions this year as well.

Cincinnati has been elite at stopping opposing quarterbacks from getting easy completions, which is why this number is as low as it is. The Bengals rank tops in the NFL in opponent completion percentage, but struggle in several other categories, notably in sack percentage where they rank 30th of 32 teams.

Brady can pick any team apart when he has time to throw, even when the Bucs struggle to convert in the red zone (22nd in red zone scoring this year). This is purely a volume play that works in the advantage of Brady, even when the metrics for Cincinnati indicate otherwise.

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

facebooktwitterreddit