Value-based data ranks Bengals draft class among NFL's elite

The Cincinnati Bengals have quite a quality crop of incoming talent from the 2026 NFL Draft, or at least that appears to be the case based on how much value Duke Tobin and Co. appear to have gotten on most of their picks.

What do I mean by that? Well first of all, the Bengals got a lot more out of the 10th overall pick than they otherwise would have by trading for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.

But that's not what we're here to discuss. Some value-based rankings for all 32 teams' draft classes have gone live, and Cincinnati earns a lot of welcome praise. First time for everything?

Sharp Football praises Bengals for first above-average draft class value since 2023

Warren Sharp uses a lot of advanced stats and metrics in covering the NFL. Rather than flat-out ranking draft classes each year straight-up, he exhaustively researches the consensus mock drafts and consensus big boards to create a statistic called Draft Capital Over Expectation (DCOE).

It's a good way to not make any rash judgments about the rookies themselves, or speculate whether they'll be quality NFL players. The point of the exercise is simply to see how well the draft process was executed by each team relative to consensus mocks and big boards.

So where do our beloved Cincinnati Bengals rank, after some recent years of pretty awful drafts? Sharp puts them in fourth place, behind only the Commanders, Panthers, and Colts.

Here's the meat of Sharp's analysis on Cincinnati's rookie class, which yielded exceptional value on Day 3 of the draft in particular:

"The Bengals [...] received tremendous value with their Round 6 and Round 7 picks. [...] C Connor Lew – expected at 76, taken at 128. C Brian Parker II – expected at 111, taken at 188. TE Jack Endries – expected at 128, taken at 220.

There were a few reaches earlier in the draft (WR Colbie Young, CB Tacario Davis), but the vast majority of the Bengals selections gave them solid DCOE. And as a result, the Bengals ranked above average in DCOE for the first time since 2023."

Cashius Howell isn't mentioned there, but the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year out of Texas A&M was the Bengals' first pick at No. 41 overall. Howell checked in at 36th on the aggregate consensus, so he was a relative bargain after an 11.5-sack 2025 campaign.

I've made my feelings known about how dumb-seeming the Colbie Young pick was. A flawed wideout who didn't produce in two years at Georgia and had an off-field red flag. Can't say I love it!

Tacario Davis was a more defensible reach, because the Bengals only had one more pick until 189th overall at that time. If they had waited, Davis would be long gone, and their options for a viable boundary CB3 would be limited. Plus, Davis gives them a different body type as a towering 6'4" corner who still has 4.4 speed. Can't hate on it.

Bengals superstar quarterback Joe Burrow had to be thrilled about Connor Lew as Ted Karras' probable successor and Duke's Brian Parker II as well.

Sharp refers to Parker as a center, but the Cincinnati native mostly played right tackle in college, and he believes he has five-position versatility. He could very well be the Bengals' swing tackle. To me, that makes him even more of a steal.

A lot of NFL personnel folks who do this for a living will rush to discredit whatever is on X/Twtiter or the Internet about draft prospects. However, maybe someone should ask San Francisco 49ers GM John Lynch about how reaching for picks way off the consensus grid has worked out in recent years. Oh, wait. Someone did.

And guess where Shark Football has the 49ers this year in CPOE, after going way off the consensus roadmap once again? Dead-last.

I mean, shout out to the 49ers and other "we know better" front offices for pushing some of these prospects down to the Bengals. We Who Dey Heads appreciate it!

As someone who builds their own big board and doesn't mind straying away from consensus, I get having conviction in who you really like. That said, it's almost like some of these NFL personnel guys are so egotistical and prideful about "knowing better" than the rest of the league. Or they're trying to outsmart the room or something.

More often than not, history tells us that drafting a player in any given slot who's at least somewhat in the consensus range yields better results than reaching way outside of it. There are exceptions to everything, but the consensus is, well, the consensus for a reason.

It's a fine line, right? Scouts, executives, coaches, and GMs want to form consensus in their own building. They don't want outside noise influencing them too much. At the same time, so often in the draft, it appears teams reach on someone just to say they did. Because they know something the other teams don't. And it's like, guys, come on, what are you trying to prove?

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